What period is the next shot at a big one? Seems like everything going forward is light to moderate the last couple days of runs

Just now, nycsnow said:

What period is the next shot at a big one? Seems like everything going forward is light to moderate the last couple days of runs

It's hard to imagine we are completely done with big threats if the weeklies are correct with the major Greenland block over the next several weeks.

After the 1st week of Feb is when the Greenland block becomes significantly stronger on all the ensembles. Would say that is our next big window.

The key is getting that to move up in time & not trend significantly weaker like we see with some -NAO driven patterns in the extended range.

Wait til the NAM or some nonsense shows a hit at 18z to bring us all back in lol 🤣

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

Wait til the NAM or some nonsense shows a hit at 18z to bring us all back in lol 🤣

The euro is not far away-a shift 50-75 miles west would get us all some snow

Need that inch on the euro to get me to 30” season.

3 minutes ago, Graupel said:

Need that inch on the euro to get me to 30” season.

It’s coming Sunday- watch!

Negative tilt on the Euro. System is begging to come west on future runs.

Not giving up on this weekend

Being the optimist WHEN the models shift northwest we can absorb a 100-150 mile shift and still be all snow along the coast whereas if it was already closer to the coast when that shift happens we would have to deal with a mix like last storm even if different type of storm/pattern.

Watch come Thursday night this cuts over the Delmarva into SE PA.

2 minutes ago, Graupel said:

Watch come Thursday night this cuts over the Delmarva into SE PA.

4 srefs at 15z do just that

Just peaked at 00z Euro from Monday (Sunday night), to determine what allowed for a HECS in the NYC metro on that run. 500 mb was generally in the same vicinity but the big difference was potency of the 500 mb low. Monday Euro had 500 mb heights down to 516 dm (as opposed to today’s Euro down to 525 dm). Secondly, Monday Euro was closed off at 7!!! isoheights. Today’s Euro: only 2. In short, we need a more intense 500 mb low on future runs.

3 minutes ago, Castellanus said:

Just peaked at 00z Euro from Monday (Sunday night), to determine what allowed for a HECS in the NYC metro on that run. 500 mb was generally in the same vicinity but the big difference was potency of the 500 mb low. Monday Euro had 500 mb heights down to 516 dm (as opposed to today’s Euro down to 525 dm). Secondly, Monday Euro was closed off at 7!!! isoheights. Today’s Euro: only 2. In short, we need a more intense 500 mb low on future runs.

i blame the government

18 minutes ago, Graupel said:

Watch come Thursday night this cuts over the Delmarva into SE PA.

We are 30 miles from .75

If we get .5 thru - 8 air w 50 mph gusts

We will save the event.

If it doesn't bump 48 hrs out its not going to

But we are 96 hrs out from Hatteras. There's a little time left

32 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

We are 30 miles from .75

If we get .5 thru - 8 air w 50 mph gusts

We will save the event.

If it doesn't bump 48 hrs out its not going to

But we are 96 hrs out from Hatteras. There's a little time left

U throwing in the towel it takes one model to show a hit without all the confusing multi lows

34 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

We are 30 miles from .75

If we get .5 thru - 8 air w 50 mph gusts

We will save the event.

If it doesn't bump 48 hrs out its not going to

But we are 96 hrs out from Hatteras. There's a little time left

I just want a few inches to freshen the pack.

I don't even need the big totals to be happy

Just now, Sundog said:

I just want a few inches to freshen the pack.

I don't even need the big totals to be happy

Strongly agree

3 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I just want a few inches to freshen the pack.

I don't even need the big totals to be happy

Yeh the HECS is gone , pretty sure MECS is gone.

So I am looking for the sfc to tuck after Hatteras..

Its actually 72 hrs out so we need something to pop by tomorrow at 12z