17 minutes ago, Snowlover76 said:

Even though its been very warm here the grass has yet to start greening up. Some trees are starting to bud

The several warm days here really seemed to wake things up. A lot of tree budding too.

21 minutes ago, Snowlover76 said:

Here ya go

That's wild, that's unbelievable

40 minutes ago, Sundog said:

That's wild, that's unbelievable

Fire season is gonna be awful. The impact on agriculture is also going to be brutal. Cattle heards are gonna get smaller and prices will go up

5 hours ago, Snowlover76 said:

Even though its been very warm here the grass has yet to start greening up. Some trees are starting to bud

Grass may not green up very much without a soaking rain.

2 hours ago, TheBomber656 said:

Maybe in Denver. Here, it will be hot, but "only" mid 80s, NOT upper 90s like last time.

11 hours ago, FrankPizz said:

The several warm days here really seemed to wake things up. A lot of tree budding too.

I’ve been surprised by the grass green up too. Things look pretty good here.

6 hours ago, Analog1888 said:

Grass may not green up very much without a soaking rain.

I dont see that happening for a while sadly. Was hoping with an El Nino this would be a wet spring. Nope. More bome dry

1 hour ago, Snowlover76 said:

I dont see that happening for a while sadly. Was hoping with an El Nino this would be a wet spring. Nope. More bome dry

We had a developing Niño in the spring and summer of 2002 and it was still bone dry where we had a major drought here. It wasn’t until around Labor Day that we got into a much wetter pattern.

There is probably going to be drought for much of the spring and summer. Even if you do get normal rainfall, there is such a big deficit. It’s not going to be erased quickly.

This is perfectly normal though. major droughts are a part of the climate.

6 minutes ago, Andrew said:

We had a developing Niño in the spring and summer of 2002 and it was still bone dry where we had a major drought here. It wasn’t until around Labor Day that we got into a much wetter pattern.

There is probably going to be drought for much of the spring and summer. Even if you do get normal rainfall, there is such a big deficit. It’s not going to be erased quickly.

This is perfectly normal though. major droughts are a part of the climate.

2002 was an exception to the rule though

according to noaa we are still in a la nina...the mean forecast is for a mod el nino...

PowerPoint Presentation

5 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

2002 was an exception to the rule though

Although April does look dry

3 minutes ago, uncle w said:

according to noaa we are still in a la nina...the mean forecast is for a mod el nino...

PowerPoint Presentation

Seems like they are already backing off the super nino predictions... AIT

5 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

Seems like they are already backing off the super nino predictions... AIT

The dynamical SON model average is now into low-end strong El Nino territory - but this isn't RONI, so due to the warmer baseline, RONI would probably be something closer to +1.0.

On 3/21/2026 at 9:23 PM, Sundog said:

Ok bro lol tell me why we you ignored my above post, tell me why we're setting record warm 850mb temps worldwide, tell me why baseline 500mb heights are always elevated now, tell me why the troposphere is warming while the stratosphere is cooling, tell me why this is all happening while we are in a cooling phase of our orbital cycles.

Please go ahead.

You of course know the answer Sundog - cyclical climate change - it's real - it's constant and there is nothing man can do to stop it.

This morning was the 100th below freezing low of the season here in East Nantmeal. Here in EN we average 97 such days. This is the most below freezing days since 2018-19 when we had 104 days. With records here since 2004 the most were 120 days in 2013-14 and the least only 72 days in 2015-16. We will see below normal temperatures today before we moderate to near normal (low 50's) tomorrow. Thursday we should warm well into the 60's before rain arrives by Friday morning. Much colder this weekend with nighttime lows again below freezing.

16 minutes ago, SnowMiser123 said:

The dynamical SON model average is now into low-end strong El Nino territory - but this isn't RONI, so due to the warmer baseline, RONI would probably be something closer to +1.0.

Yeah, that's nowhere near "Super Nino"... sometimes you haave to take into account the fact that super Ninos, on average, occur once every 10-15 years. We had one in 2023-24, which was actually an eight year interval, so we probably will not have another for quite a long time.

2 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

Seems like they are already backing off the super nino predictions... AIT

el nino winters...new data...

DJF oni......year....NYC snowfall and biggest snowfall...

0.5......1952-53...15"......4"

0.5......1969-70...25"......7"

0.5......1992-93...25"......10"

0.6......1951-52...20"......5"

0.6......1979-80...13"......5"

0.6......2004-05...41"......14"

0.6......2006-07...13"......5"

0.6......2018-19...21"......6"

0.7......1987-88...19"......6"

0.9......1977-78...51"......18"

0.9......2002-03...50"......20"

1.0......1953-54...16"......10"

1.0......1976-77...25"......5"

1.1......1963-64...45"......13"

1.2......1968-69...30"......15"

1.2......2023-24...7"........3"

1.3......1994-95...12"......11"

1.5......2009-10...51"......21"

1.6......1986-87...23"......8"

1.7......1965-66...21"......7"

2.0......1957-58...45"......12"

2.0......1972-73...3"........2"

2.2......1997-98...6"........5"

2.2......2015-16....33".....27"

2.3......1991-92...13".....6"

2.5......1982-83...27".....18"

28 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

Yeah, that's nowhere near "Super Nino"... sometimes you haave to take into account the fact that super Ninos, on average, occur once every 10-15 years. We had one in 2023-24, which was actually an eight year interval, so we probably will not have another for quite a long time.

Notable though that the February update had +0.78 for SON - so a significant adjustment upward in the dynamical model consensus compared to last month's update.

2 minutes ago, uncle w said:

el nino winters...new data...

DJF oni......year....NYC snowfall and biggest snowfall...

0.5......1952-53...15"......4"

0.5......1969-70...25"......7"

0.5......1992-93...25"......10"

0.6......1951-52...20"......5"

0.6......1979-80...13"......5"

0.6......2004-05...41"......14"

0.6......2006-07...13"......5"

0.6......2018-19...21"......6"

0.7......1987-88...19"......6"

0.9......1977-78...51"......18"

0.9......2002-03...50"......20"

1.0......1953-54...16"......10"

1.0......1976-77...25"......5"

1.1......1963-64...45"......13"

1.2......1968-69...30"......15"

1.2......2023-24...7"........3"

1.3......1994-95...12"......11"

1.5......2009-10...51"......21"

1.6......1986-87...23"......8"

1.7......1965-66...21"......7"

2.0......1957-58...45"......12"

2.0......1972-73...3"........2"

2.2......1997-98...6"........5"

2.2......2015-16....33".....27"

2.3......1991-92...13".....6"

2.5......1982-83...27".....

Just now, SnowMiser123 said:

Notable though that the February update had +0.78 for SON - so a significant adjustment upward in the dynamical model consensus compared to last month's update.

It's probably like a lot of other modeling situations. The low models come up, the high models come down, and we form a consensus.