Just now, Analog1888 said:

It's probably like a lot of other modeling situations. The low models come up, the high models come down, and we form a consensus.

Since we are also near the spring predictability barrier, when there is a shift like that, often times it represents a more coherent signal beginning to emerge.

3 minutes ago, SnowMiser123 said:

Since we are also near the spring predictability barrier, when there is a shift like that, often times it represents a more coherent signal beginning to emerge.

Yeah, I think we can get to +1.2 or so, certainly moderate to strong El Nino, but not "super Nino".

The 2023-2024 El Nino event on the new CPC RONI got brought down to +1.5 - the warming trend has gotten significant enough to the point where it is starting to contaminate ONI values. The warming trend is making El Ninos appear stronger than they actually are, & is making La Ninas appear weaker than they actually are.

The relative warm/cool areas are what matter more for rising/sinking motion & the resultant impact to the mid-latitude weather pattern, hence why CPC made the switch from ONI to RONI.

23 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

Yeah, I think we can get to +1.2 or so, certainly moderate to strong El Nino, but not "super Nino".

Great. That means we will get a fucken Nino that will act like a Nina. So tired of this shit. 6 years now of endless drought. I dont think this dry pattern is ever going to emd.

Just now, Snowlover76 said:

Great. That means we will get a fucken Nino that will act like a Nina. So tired of this shit. 6 years now of endless drought. I dont think this dry pattern is ever going to emd.

How will a moderate to strong El Nino act like a Nina? What is wrong with you?

1 hour ago, Analog1888 said:

Yeah, that's nowhere near "Super Nino"... sometimes you haave to take into account the fact that super Ninos, on average, occur once every 10-15 years. We had one in 2023-24, which was actually an eight year interval, so we probably will not have another for quite a long time.

I just want these fucken La Nina's to die.

Just now, Analog1888 said:

How will a moderate to strong El Nino act like a Nina? What is wrong with you?

23-24 did.

8 minutes ago, Snowlover76 said:

23-24 did.

23-24 acted like a classic super Nino. You really need to learn how the atmosphere works and what jet streams are dominant before making stupid posts like this, just based on numbers in your backyard.

1 hour ago, ChescoWeather said:

You of course know the answer Sundog - cyclical climate change - it's real - it's constant and there is nothing man can do to stop it.

Death comes to all of us naturally as well, but many people bring about their own death artificially due to substance abuse, reckless driving, suicide, etc.

The natural climate variation should be pushing us to a cooler climate.

What exactly do you think is causing our current heat streak? We've already eliminated the Sun as a possibility unless you don't understand physics.

BTW what sources did you use to learn about natural cyclical climate change and the Earth's past climates?

1 hour ago, Analog1888 said:

23-24 acted like a classic super Nino. You really need to learn how the atmosphere works and what jet streams are dominant before making stupid posts like this, just based on numbers in your backyard.

It was dry as f*** here

13 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Death comes to all of us naturally as well, but many people bring about their own death artificially due to substance abuse, reckless driving, suicide, etc.

The natural climate variation should be pushing us to a cooler climate.

What exactly do you think is causing our current heat streak? We've already eliminated the Sun as a possibility unless you don't understand physics.

BTW what sources did you use to learn about natural cyclical climate change and the Earth's past climates?

My sources come from my deep insights and detailed analytics around cyclical historical data from many sources. I also take into account Milankovitch Cycles, orbital variations (eccentricity, tilt, wobble) that have without question influenced past and future ice ages, past and future solar cycles with data points around sunspot activity and solar irradiance, likely linked to our 1,000–1,500 year climate cycles etc. etc.

1 hour ago, Analog1888 said:

23-24 acted like a classic super Nino. You really need to learn how the atmosphere works and what jet streams are dominant before making stupid posts like this, just based on numbers in your backyard.

It did for the first half of winter and if it would’ve continued for the second half when we got a couple of cold shots, we would’ve gotten significant snow, but it started to act more like a Niña. Joe Cioffi what’s the one who was talking about it then and he said that at that time.

Do it need a couple of consecutive winters of El Niño to really break the pattern and maybe this will be the beginning of it. But that’s why I believe that we will still be in drought conditions nationwide until perhaps the early Autumn.

2 hours ago, SnowMiser123 said:

The 2023-2024 El Nino event on the new CPC RONI got brought down to +1.5 - the warming trend has gotten significant enough to the point where it is starting to contaminate ONI values. The warming trend is making El Ninos appear stronger than they actually are, & is making La Ninas appear weaker than they actually are.

The relative warm/cool areas are what matter more for rising/sinking motion & the resultant impact to the mid-latitude weather pattern, hence why CPC made the switch from ONI to RONI.

1992-93 is a weak El Niño now… mei data had it all along…

24 minutes ago, ChescoWeather said:

My sources come from my deep insights and detailed analytics around cyclical historical data from many sources. I also take into account Milankovitch Cycles, orbital variations (eccentricity, tilt, wobble) that have without question influenced past and future ice ages, past and future solar cycles with data points around sunspot activity and solar irradiance, likely linked to our 1,000–1,500 year climate cycles etc. etc.

Sun isn't causing warming for the reasons I have twice previously stated. The Milankovitch cycles are in a cooling phase.

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

Sun isn't causing warming for the reasons I have twice previously stated. The Milankovitch cycles are in a cooling phase.

Another 90 degree day on tap for tomorrow here. Unreal heat.

No UHI here either.

Just took the weather mats out of my car and put away my shovel.

Winter is officially over 

Just now, Metfan88 said:

winter mats

Wut

47 here

56 minutes ago, Metfan88 said:

47 here

69 at your mom's

Wow