18 minutes ago, Sundog said:

He wants to be in the dark reds though lol

Then you'd probably be mixing.

7 minutes ago, Sundog said:

F the SREFs

15z was way south. This is better.

7 minutes ago, Metfan88 said:

15z was way south. This is better.

There were more wesr members at 15z

One or two far left leaning members can really skew the snow maps. Be careful

The NWS forecast for many spots across Chester County has low temperatures falling to below zero for the next 3 mornings. To put that in perspective. I have lived here in East Nantmeal and have been taking daily observations for the last 23 years. For the first 9 years from 2004-2013 we never had a below zero reading. Since 2014 we have had only 7 such days and have never even experienced consecutive days below zero. Of note East Nantmeal is at a relatively higher elevation at 685 ft asl. Some relatively low spots like Warwick Township (407 ft asl) have had 12 subzero days since 2012. Below is the list of the only below zero days here in East Nantmeal.

1/31/19 - 4.8 below

2/20/15 - 3.1 below

2/16/15 - 2.8 below

1/7/14 - 1.6 below

1/24/11 - 1.2 below

1/22/14 - 1.0 below

2/24/15 - 0.3 below

4 minutes ago, USAwx said:

One or two far left leaning members can really skew the snow maps. Be careful

Looks like we have two groups of lows pressure positions:

.

.

2 minutes ago, USAwx said:

.

Post the DGEX

Ukie ENS. jumped West

What the hell is this lol

https://nypost.com/2026/01/28/us-news/deadly-bomb-cyclone-headed-straight-for-nyc-and-could-batter-northeast-with-even-more-snow-even-colder-temps/

Breaking news no less

Just now, Sundog said:

What the hell is this lol

https://nypost.com/2026/01/28/us-news/deadly-bomb-cyclone-headed-straight-for-nyc-and-could-batter-northeast-with-even-more-snow-even-colder-temps/

Breaking news no less

Imagine euro verifies and there’s a 3-6 inch blizzard warning… media frenzy

Just now, nycsnow said:

Imagine euro verifies and there’s a 3-6 inch blizzard warning… media frenzy

It will be like a Great Plains blizzard

Mt Holly like the RGEM gives hope

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
624 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

Regarding the weekend storm potential, there have continued be some 
fluctuations back and forth in forecast guidance regarding the storm 
track but generally speaking no major changes in overall forecast 
thinking. There will very likely be at least some impacts across 
portions of the area this weekend from a potentially major coastal 
storm. Impacts could be significant, especially near the coast

KEY MESSAGE 2...A rapidly deepening storm is expected to develop off the east 
coast this weekend. While confidence in specific forecast details 
still remains low, the storm could bring at least portions of the 
area moderate to significant impacts from snow, strong winds, and 
coastal flooding Saturday night into Sunday. 

Forecast models continue to forecast cyclogensis occurring beginning 
Saturday off the southeast coast with rapidly deepening low pressure 
depicted to then move north and east Saturday night through Sunday. 
This will occur due to a potent upper level disturbance pivoting 
around the base of the long wave trough over the east interacting 
with the strong baroclinic zone along the coast. 

In terms of impacts to our forecast area, this hinges on the 
exact track the storm takes which still remains uncertain at 
this time. Generally speaking, the latest 12z deterministic 
guidance has our forecast area near the N/W fringe of the
storm's precip shield. The GFS has shifted slightly farther S/E
with the storm track and precip shield compared to the 0z run 
while the ECMWF has shifted a bit west. There also continues to 
be spread among the ensembles. One thing that's interesting to
note though is that the RGEM (the Canadian model) appears to be
supporting a track near or a bit west of the model consensus
based on its placement of upper level features at the end of 
its run at 84 hours out (7PM Saturday evening). This model
generally does very well with these types of large scale winter
systems. 

Potential storm impacts include not just heavy precipitation but 
also strong winds and coastal flooding as the storm will have a 
tight pressure gradient with a very strong wind field. Timing wise, 
the earliest this would arrive is late day Saturday with the brunt 
of the storm occuring Saturday night into Sunday if we get it. Given 
the very cold temperatures in place both at the surface and aloft, 
all snow is strongly favored in terms of precip type. 

The latest NBM probabilistic data has trended back up a bit. For 
snow amounts greater than 2 inches (plowable), the range is from 
around 60-70 percent near the coast to 40-50 percent near the I-95 
corridor with lower probabilities N/W of the urban corridor. For 6+ 
inches, these probs are around 30-40 percent near I-95 up to 50-60 
percent near the coast. These probabilities overall seem reasonable 
but it's worth nothing that the probability greater than 2 inch
numbers are not that different than the probability greater 
than 6 inch numbers. This is likely due to the fact that much of
the forecast guidance depicts a sharp gradient in QPF/snow 
amounts which is pretty common on the N/W side of the type of 
storms. 

Regardless of snow amounts, we have growing confidence the storm should
at least track close enough to bring the area increasing winds 
Saturday night into Sunday. Our current forecast has N/NE winds 
forecast to be 15 to 25 gusting 25 to 35 mph inland Sunday with 
winds 25 to 35 gusting up to 50 mph along the coast. Winds could
even end up a bit stronger than this if a more N/W track with 
the storm occurs. This could lead to some damage and power 
outages and may also help cause water to really pile up along 
the coast leading to the coastal flooding concerns if winds end 
more towards the NE vs. the north.

By Sunday evening, the storm should be rapidly pulling away to the 
northeast with generally tranquil but cold weather for early next 
week. 

Overall this remains a very challenging forecast because even though 
there's a bit less dispersion in the forecast models compared to 
yesterday, it is still very hard to rule out a more direct hit or a 
complete miss in terms of snowfall since we'll likely be near the 
N/W edge of the precip shield as described above. This means a 
relatively small shift of 50-100 miles in storm track will have 
large implications in terms of impacts

.1.

No bueno on the nam

3 minutes ago, USAwx said:

.1.

I count 2 possibly 3 tucks in to MD there.

12 minutes ago, supermeh said:

No bueno on the nam

Bermuda - ridge not as good as 18z

NAM doing the Ukie

Long range Nam but would’ve been nice to see something after it’s semi ok 18z run.