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Balance of January and all of February with a Hint of March Storm Tracking Thread

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52 minutes ago, Red 2.0 said:

THIS!!!

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Week 2 looks great

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ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-t2m_f_anom_7day-1027200.png

Frozen tundra

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Aanyone got the stats on coldest weeks in NYC? And coldest 10 day stetches?

Still a cold pattern at the end of the ensembles.

697cbcc95bae2.png

If the Euro is right NYC shatters its longest streak below freezing.

14 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Aanyone got the stats on coldest weeks in NYC? And coldest 10 day stetches?

winters coldest week in NYC...

winter.......ave temp...dates...

1957-58.......16.7...2/13-19...blizzard 16th...

1958-59......22.9...12/10-16...snow 9th...14th...

1959-60......25.1....3/5-11...blizzard 4th...

1960-61.......15.4....1/20-26...blizzard 20th...

1961-62.......25.1....2/7-13...snow 9th...

1962-63.......19.9....1/24-30...snow 23rd...

1963-64......22.2...12/15-21...snow 18th...

1964-65......19.5....1/14-20...snow 16th...

1965-66......22.1....1/25-31...snowstorm 30th...

1966-67.......21.6...2/7-13...blizzard 7th...

1967-68.......12.2...1/6-12...snow 6th..

1968-69......26.3...1/1-7...snow 7th...

1969-70.......19.4...1/19-25...snow 2oth...

1970-71........19.1....1/15-21...dry...

1971-72.......22.6...2/5-11...snow 6th...

1972-73.......22.1...1/6-12...dry...

1973-74.......21.9...2/3-9...snowstorm 8th...

1974-75.......27.1...2/8-14...snowstorm 12th...

1976-77........15.9...1/12-18...snow 14th...

1977-78.......21.4...1/31-2/6...blizzard 6th...

1978-79.......12.7....2/12-18...snow 12th, 16th

1979-80.......24.1...1/31-2/6...dry...

1980-81.......16.4....1/7-13...snow 7th...

1981-82.......18.0...1/9-15...snow 13th 14th..

1982-83......25.9...2/5-11...snow 5th...blizzard 11th...

1983-84......21.2...1/16-22...snow 18th...

1984-85......20.4...1/16-22...snow 17th, 20th...

1985-86......27.4...2/11-17...snow 11th...

1986-87.......21.1....1/22-28...snowstorm 22nd...26th...

1987-88......20.4...1/5-11...snow 8th...

1988-89......25.0...12/11-17...dusting 13th...

1989-90......16.9....12/21-27...dry, flurries...

1990-91.......26.7...1/21-27...snow 21st...

1991-92.......23.9...1/15-21...dusting 20th...

1992-93......28.7....2/23-31...dusting 26th...

1993-94......13.9....1/15-21...snow/ice 17th...snow 18th...

1994-95......22.0...2/3-9...snowstorm 4th...

1995-96.......18.7....1/3-9...blizzard 7th...

1996-97.......22.5...1/14-20...wet, flurries...

1997-98.......33.1...12/27-1/2...3/11-17...rain/snow 12/27...rain/snow 3/14

1998-99.......24.1...12/31-1/6...wet...

1999-00.......17.6....1/17-23...snow 20th...

2000-01.......23.8...12/22-28...dusting 22nd..

2001-02.......29.9...12/29-1/5...dry...

2002-03.......18.7....1/18-24...snow 17th...

2003-04.......17.4....1/10-16...snow 15th...

2004-05.......17.1.....1/18-24...blizzard 23rd...

2005-06......28.3...12/8-14...snow 9th...

2006-07......20.9...2/4-10...dry...flurry...

2007-08......28.2...1/20-26...flurry...

2008-09......22.9...1/11-17...snow 15th, 17th...

2009-10.......26.4...1/3-11...snow 8th...

2010-11........24.5...1/20-26...snowstorm 26th...

2011-12........30.6...1/15-21...snow 21st...

2012-13........21.1....1/21-27...snow 25th...

2013-14.......20.3...1/21-27...snow 25th...

2014-15........17.6...2/15-21...snow 17th, 21st..

2015-16.......22.4...2/9-15...snow/rain 15th...

2016-17........27.3...3/10-16...snow 10th...snowstorm 14th...

2017-18........16.4...1/1-7...snowstorm 4th...

2018-19.......25.6...1/28-2/3...snow 30th...

2019-20.......30.3...12/16-22...snow 18th...

2020-21.......26.8...1/27-2/2...snowstorm 1st...

2021-22.......24.9...1/26-2/1...snowstorm 29th...

2022-23.......27.9...12/21-27...wet...

2023-24.......25.4...1/15-21...snow 16th...

2024-25.......23.0...1/19-25...snow 19th...

..........................................................................................

Latest week.....3/11-17/1998...

Earliest week...12/8-14/2005...

...........................................................

Coldest five...

12.2...1/6-12/1968...

12.7...2/12-18/1979...

13.9...1/15-21/1994...

15.4...1/20-26/1961...

15.9...1/12-18/1977...

Warmest...

33.1...12/27-1/2...3/11-17/1998...

30.6...1/15-21/2012...

30.3...12/16-22/2019...

29.9...12/29-1/4 2002...

28.7...2/23-3/1 1993...

2 minutes ago, uncle w said:

winters coldest week in NYC...

winter.......ave temp...dates...

1957-58.......16.7...2/13-19...blizzard 16th...

1958-59......22.9...12/10-16...snow 9th...14th...

1959-60......25.1....3/5-11...blizzard 4th...

1960-61.......15.4....1/20-26...blizzard 20th...

1961-62.......25.1....2/7-13...snow 9th...

1962-63.......19.9....1/24-30...snow 23rd...

1963-64......22.2...12/15-21...snow 18th...

1964-65......19.5....1/14-20...snow 16th...

1965-66......22.1....1/25-31...snowstorm 30th...

1966-67.......21.6...2/7-13...blizzard 7th...

1967-68.......12.2...1/6-12...snow 6th..

1968-69......26.3...1/1-7...snow 7th...

1969-70.......19.4...1/19-25...snow 2oth...

1970-71........19.1....1/15-21...dry...

1971-72.......22.6...2/5-11...snow 6th...

1972-73.......22.1...1/6-12...dry...

1973-74.......21.9...2/3-9...snowstorm 8th...

1974-75.......27.1...2/8-14...snowstorm 12th...

1976-77........15.9...1/12-18...snow 14th...

1977-78.......21.4...1/31-2/6...blizzard 6th...

1978-79.......12.7....2/12-18...snow 12th, 16th

1979-80.......24.1...1/31-2/6...dry...

1980-81.......16.4....1/7-13...snow 7th...

1981-82.......18.0...1/9-15...snow 13th 14th..

1982-83......25.9...2/5-11...snow 5th...blizzard 11th...

1983-84......21.2...1/16-22...snow 18th...

1984-85......20.4...1/16-22...snow 17th, 20th...

1985-86......27.4...2/11-17...snow 11th...

1986-87.......21.1....1/22-28...snowstorm 22nd...26th...

1987-88......20.4...1/5-11...snow 8th...

1988-89......25.0...12/11-17...dusting 13th...

1989-90......16.9....12/21-27...dry, flurries...

1990-91.......26.7...1/21-27...snow 21st...

1991-92.......23.9...1/15-21...dusting 20th...

1992-93......28.7....2/23-31...dusting 26th...

1993-94......13.9....1/15-21...snow/ice 17th...snow 18th...

1994-95......22.0...2/3-9...snowstorm 4th...

1995-96.......18.7....1/3-9...blizzard 7th...

1996-97.......22.5...1/14-20...wet, flurries...

1997-98.......33.1...12/27-1/2...3/11-17...rain/snow 12/27...rain/snow 3/14

1998-99.......24.1...12/31-1/6...wet...

1999-00.......17.6....1/17-23...snow 20th...

2000-01.......23.8...12/22-28...dusting 22nd..

2001-02.......29.9...12/29-1/5...dry...

2002-03.......18.7....1/18-24...snow 17th...

2003-04.......17.4....1/10-16...snow 15th...

2004-05.......17.1.....1/18-24...blizzard 23rd...

2005-06......28.3...12/8-14...snow 9th...

2006-07......20.9...2/4-10...dry...flurry...

2007-08......28.2...1/20-26...flurry...

2008-09......22.9...1/11-17...snow 15th, 17th...

2009-10.......26.4...1/3-11...snow 8th...

2010-11........24.5...1/20-26...snowstorm 26th...

2011-12........30.6...1/15-21...snow 21st...

2012-13........21.1....1/21-27...snow 25th...

2013-14.......20.3...1/21-27...snow 25th...

2014-15........17.6...2/15-21...snow 17th, 21st..

2015-16.......22.4...2/9-15...snow/rain 15th...

2016-17........27.3...3/10-16...snow 10th...snowstorm 14th...

2017-18........16.4...1/1-7...snowstorm 4th...

2018-19.......25.6...1/28-2/3...snow 30th...

2019-20.......30.3...12/16-22...snow 18th...

2020-21.......26.8...1/27-2/2...snowstorm 1st...

2021-22.......24.9...1/26-2/1...snowstorm 29th...

2022-23.......27.9...12/21-27...wet...

2023-24.......25.4...1/15-21...snow 16th...

2024-25.......23.0...1/19-25...snow 19th...

..........................................................................................

Latest week.....3/11-17/1998...

Earliest week...12/8-14/2005...

...........................................................

Coldest five...

12.2...1/6-12/1968...

12.7...2/12-18/1979...

13.9...1/15-21/1994...

15.4...1/20-26/1961...

15.9...1/12-18/1977...

Warmest...

33.1...12/27-1/2...3/11-17/1998...

30.6...1/15-21/2012...

30.3...12/16-22/2019...

29.9...12/29-1/4 2002...

28.7...2/23-3/1 1993...

Our last 6 days are running at 17.5 degrees. And today is going to make the 7 day average even colder. So we are putting up some solid numbers for coldest week this year.

So, with just 2 days left in the month I did a quick analysis to put into perspective how cold these first 2 months of the winter season have been across the Philly burbs of Chester County. This January is on pace to be a top 26 all-time cold January across 133 years of climate data since 1893. It is also our coldest first month of the year since 2014 It will also be a Top 20 all-time cold December/January start to winter. Plus, our coldest start to winter since 2010-11.

14 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Our last 6 days are running at 17.5 degrees. And today is going to make the 7 day average even colder. So we are putting up some solid numbers for coldest week this year.

NYC's coldest weeks...

ave temp...month/day/year...
02.5......12/29/1917-1/4/1918
08.8......2/8-14/1899
10.9......2/3-9/1895
12.2......1/6-12/1968
12.3......1/11-17/1893

12.6......12/28/1880-1/3/1881
12.7......2/12-18/1979
13.5......2/4-10/1934
13.5......1/22-28/1888
13.6......1/9-15/1886

13.6......1/10-16/1912

13.7......12/22-28/1872
13.9......1/15-21/1994
14.1......2/1-7/1886
14.6......1/15-21/1935
14.6......1/23-29/1936
......................

4 minutes ago, uncle w said:

NYC's coldest weeks...

ave temp...month/day/year...
02.5......12/29/1917-1/4/1918
08.8......2/8-14/1899
10.9......2/3-9/1895
12.2......1/6-12/1968
12.3......1/11-17/1893

12.6......12/28/1880-1/3/1881
12.7......2/12-18/1979
13.5......2/4-10/1934
13.5......1/22-28/1888
13.6......1/9-15/1886

13.6......1/10-16/1912
13.9......1/15-21/1994
14.1......2/1-7/1886
14.6......1/15-21/1935
14.6......1/23-29/1936
......................

We are going to finish just behind 2017-2018 for the week at around 16.8 degrees if we get our forecasted high.

I don't even remember a week being that cold in 2017-2018.

NYC snowstorms 10" + with le and temperatures...

4.43"...17.5"...02/04-07/1920...mid 20's to low 30's...snow/ice/sleet for over 72 hours...

3.17"...20.9"...02/25-26/2010...mid 30's to upper 20's...wet snow some mix...

3.11"...14.5"...03/01-02/1914...upper 30's to upper teens...started as rain/sleet/ice...

2.68"...12.5"...02/20/1921........mid 30's to low 20's...started as rain/sleet/ice...

2.62"...17.4"...02/03-04/1961...upper 20's to low 30's...changed to sleet/rain for a time...

2.52"...10.6"...03/13-14/1993...low 30's to upper 30's...changed to sleet and rain...

2.40"...26.4"...12/26-27/1947...mid 20's to low 30's...all snow

2.32"...27.5"...01/22-23/2016...mid 20's...all snow

2.22"...10.4"...02/03-04/1926...mid 20's to 30...mixed with sleet and ice...

2.16"...20.2"...01/07-08/1996...low teens to low 20's...all snow...

2.10"...21.0"...03/12-14/1888...upper 30's to single digits...started as rain/sleet...

2.08"...18.1"...03/07-08/1941...low 20's to low 30's...wet snow ending as a mix...

2.08"...12.5"...02/13-14/2014...mid 20's to mid 30's to mid 20's...changed to rain for 12 hours...

2.06"...19.0"...01/26-27/2011...low 30's to mid 30's to upper 20's...changed to rain for a time...

1.94"...11.5"...01/02/1925........low and mid 20's...mixed with sleet/ice...

1.87"...12.0"...03/15-16/1896...upper 20's to low 30's...ended as mix and rain...

1.86"...26.9"...02/11-12/2006...upper 20's...all snow...

1.82"...15.3"...02/09-10/1969...mid 30's to mid 20's...

1.80"...11.4"...01/25/2026...low teens to mid 20's...

1.78"...19.8"...02/16-17/2003...single digits to mid 20's...

1.61"...20.0"...12/26-27/2010...30 to 20...

1.61"...11.8"...03/20-21/1958...mid 30's to low 30's...

1.58"...16.0"...12/19-20/1948...upper 20's...

1.53"...11.4"...02/08-09/2013...mid 30's to upper 20's...

1.50"...13.6"...01/19-20/1978...mid 20's to low 30's...

1.49"...17.6"...02/11-12/1983...upper teens to low 20's...

1.33"...10.0"...02/10/2010........low 30's...

1.26"...10.8"...02/04/1995........low to mid 30's...

1.18"...10.2"...04/02-03/1915...around 30...

1.18"...13.8"...01/22-23/2005...low teens to mid 20's...

1.16"...10.0"...11/27-28/1898...low 30's to mid 20's...

1.16"...11.6"...03/18-19/1956...mid to low 20's...

1.13"...17.7"...02/06-07/1978...low 20's to low 30's...

1.12"...13.0"...01/15-16/1879...upper 20's to lower teens...

1.10"...11.4"...12/24/1912.........low 30's to mid 20's...

1.09"...12.8"...02/11/1994.........mid teens to mid 20's...

1.08"...14.5"...03/03-04/1960...upper 20's to upper teens...

1.06"...12.5"...02/07/1967.........mid teens to single digits...

1.04"...11.0"...02/03-04/1876...teens/20's...

1.04"...11.2"...12/26/1933.........low 30's to low 20's...

Models are impressively cold over the next ~2 weeks for the eastern half of the U.S.

On the flip side, mid-south/western half of U.S. should see pleasant temperatures.. 70s showing up for Dallas and Houston by first week of February lol.

so far, the warmest temperature since Dec 1st is 58 on 12/19/2025 when some were panicking...if February's max is not any higher this winter will make the list of coldest max for the winter...

since the 1944-45 winter...

coldest max...

55 in 1963-64...

57 in 1976-77...

58 in 1981-82...

58 in 1977-78...

58 in 1961-62...

58 in 1944-45...

59 in 2003-04...

59 in 1986-87...

59 in 1957-58...

59 in 1955-56...

59 in 1947-48...

pre 44-45...

53 in 1904-05...

57 in 1922-23...

59 in 1917-18...

58 in 1933-34...

Time to visit Whitestone and hang out close to the Throgs Neck to see the frozen waters. Doesn’t happen too often.

10 minutes ago, nesussxwx said:

Models are impressively cold over the next ~2 weeks for eastern half of the U.S.

On the flip side, mid-south/western half of U.S. should see pleasant temperatures.. 70s showing up for Dallas and Houston by first week of February lol.

Headed to Corpus for work the week of 2/9 so hoping to catch some "warmth" there because they even dipped below freezing there recently and that not all that common. BTW .. can we see snow in the air in Tampa Sat night and can MIA hit 32? Imagine some massive impacts on citrus industry.

Not awful

500hv.conus.png

prateptype_cat_icon-imp.conus.png

Now, why does this look familiar ?

500hv.conus.png

LOL the ICON... my sister lives in SC (Charleston suburb) and asked me to check the models for her area.

All the models give her 2-4 except the UK and ICON lol

Today will be the fifth consecutive day where the temperature in New York City Central Park remains at freezing or below the day after at least a 10 inch snowfall.

The only other time that has happened in my lifetime was after the February 1995 snowstorm which dumped over 10 inches in New York City Central Park. The temperature stayed at freezing or below for five consecutive days afterwards from Feb 5-9 1995.

Tomorrow will be the sixth consecutive day and that will be a record for such an event in my lifetime and if it’s in my lifetime then it’s definitely in most of your lifetimes as well.

Double digit snowstorms are almost always followed by warmth. This is truly historic in that sense and who knows how long we are going to go. It’s a very impressive record especially when you consider how warm this decade has been.

IMG_4353.jpeg

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