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Balance of January and all of February with a Hint of March Storm Tracking Thread

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Screenshot_20260130_091339_Gallery.jpgecmwf-aifs-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_1day-1048800.png

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I put up the January 2005 temperatures because the period after that was the coldest I have seen after a double digit snowstorm but this period is definitely going to beat that.

IMG_4357.jpegIMG_4357.jpegGreat South Bay from Bay Shore.

IMG_4355.jpeg

So other than the cold- do we see more snow within the next week? Or is this is for now on?

2 minutes ago, Jefflaw77 said:

So other than the cold- do we see more snow within the next week? Or is this is for now on?

There are several clippers that bear watching, but we'll see which will produce.

We got the pattern just need the storms

Gfs likes Virginia for the 5th

11 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Gfs likes Virginia for the 5th

Yeah we have a better shot the 6th-7th. There's a PV lobe on the 4th over Southern Canada that is too close for us.

Some Miller B development on the GFS from the clipper on the 7th

6-7 we get

image.png

Nice

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The 6-7 is a blizzard for the east end and ACK verbatim. If you can pull that Miller B further west, it would be great for all of the forum!

NYC is 6.5 at 10 to 1

sn10_024h-imp.us_ne.png

The cold air coming in behind that is colder than what we are seeing now!

Just to temper expectations, the GGEM develops everything further east and puts the metro in the shadow.

Way too early to know where that will be.

6 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

Just to temper expectations, the GGEM develops everything further east and puts the metro in the shadow.

Way too early to know where that will be.

Yup. Need several more days before this comes into better focus. We also need to get some model support from the Euro suite as we get closer.

This is stating the obvious of course but that is the reality.

Just now, dbc said:

Yup. Need several more days before this comes into better focus. We also need to get some model support from the Euro suite as we get closer.

This is stating the obvious of course but that is the reality.

Yeah that's the one bad thing about Miller B.

Sometimes you don't know where the secondary is going to form until the last minute.

We can do very well, like Dec 2000 or Jan 2005, but Dec 30 2000, just 100 miles south of us was a HUGE bust.

On the 11th, we have precip breaking out along a frontal boundary in the Midwest...

Strong high pressure north of the GLakes.

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1 hour ago, Andrew said:

Today will be the fifth consecutive day where the temperature in New York City Central Park remains at freezing or below the day after at least a 10 inch snowfall.

The only other time that has happened in my lifetime was after the February 1995 snowstorm which dumped over 10 inches in New York City Central Park. The temperature stayed at freezing or below for five consecutive days afterwards from Feb 5-9 1995.

Tomorrow will be the sixth consecutive day and that will be a record for such an event in my lifetime and if it’s in my lifetime then it’s definitely in most of your lifetimes as well.

Double digit snowstorms are almost always followed by warmth. This is truly historic in that sense and who knows how long we are going to go. It’s a very impressive record especially when you consider how warm this decade has been.

IMG_4353.jpeg

the January 19-20th, 1961 10-12" blizzard started the 16 straight days below freezing highs and the Feb 4th 1961 storm with an 18" snowstorm ended it...should have been 17 days but when the snow stopped on Feb 4th the temp went up to 34 briefly...LGA only made it to 32 so their record is 17 days...

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