The GFS is doing CF like the Canadian from 12Z.

DUAL CLOSED H5 LOWS NOW

Just now, Analog1888 said:

The GFS is doing CF like the Canadian from 12Z.

this is worlds better

LOOK HOW FAR PRECIP GETS BACK NOW

THIS ISN'T A TICK AWAY

IT'S A 1/2 TICK OR LESS

Just now, jjvesnow said:

I mean, this is as primed a pattern as you will ever see

1 minute ago, USAwx said:

LOOK HOW FAR PRECIP GETS BACK NOW

THIS ISN'T A TICK AWAY

IT'S A 1/2 TICK OR LESS

(Tic tic)

1 minute ago, danstorm said:

I mean, this is as primed a pattern as you will ever see

WATCH h5 either not dive so far south, or the closed H5 dual structure is more prominent.

2 minutes ago, USAwx said:

this is worlds better

Yes it is better, heavy precip is tilted further NW and the low is more tucked in.

That’s a mean looking 500 closed low.. that’s all I’ll say. If it’s real, it’s a beauty.. too far south but dynamically at 500 it’s what you want to see

if this was any closer, metfan would stick his dick in it

hopefully ensembles go nuts and we see euro and AI come on board

when I see a -5sd ao I get excited...last year it happened to late in the season...the January 2016 had a -5 a week before...looking at the ao forecast we might see another storm after this...either way its going to get extremely cold...

1 minute ago, Tornadojay said:

That’s a mean looking 500 closed low.. that’s all I’ll say. If it’s real, it’s a beauty.. too far south but dynamically at 500 it’s what you want to see

shift 500mb 50 miles north and it's a hit

that's a nothing burger

Just now, uncle w said:

when I see a -5sd ao I get excited...last year it happened to late in the season...the January 2016 had a -5 a week before...looking at the ao forecast we might see another storm after this...either way its going to get extremely cold...

I wouldn't call this too late. There is no way we can't get something big in later Feb or March, like Feb 2010 or March 1993.

This dual jet structure needs to just transpose itself a few hundred miles west… the low will form in between the LFQ and RRQ of the respective jet streaks.. that is where upper level divergence is maximized and corresponding surface pressure would fall

1 minute ago, Analog1888 said:

I wouldn't call this too late. There is no way we can't get something big in later Feb or March, like Feb 2010 or March 1993.

last year was late...all we got from it was the coldest day of Feb...February could rivel 2021 but much colder...

2 minutes ago, Tornadojay said:

This dual jet structure needs to just transpose itself a few hundred miles west… the low will form in between the LFQ and RRQ of the respective jet streaks.. that is where upper level divergence is maximized and corresponding surface pressure would fall

I think we can actually "get away with" this low being a little further east than normal and still do "OK", considering how big its precipitation field is.

1 minute ago, Analog1888 said:

I think we can actually "get away with" this low being a little further east than normal and still do "OK", considering how big its precipitation field is.

truth

1 minute ago, Analog1888 said:

I think we can actually "get away with" this low being a little further east than normal and still do "OK", considering how big its precipitation field is.

The NW shield looks crappy. Is it because it is chasing convection?