West Central Florida may get more snow than most people on this forum according to the NAM

AIFs dry as a bone

5 minutes ago, Graupel said:

AIFs dry as a bone

Neighborhood piles will be one giant doggie pee spot

What a difference a week makes.. this time last week this place was hopping 10 new posts a min at peak times. Some longtime posters who came back on to post. Was an exciting stretch as We were looking down the barrel at biggest storm in a few years and models were showing another possible blizzard for this coming weekend. Now back to the doldrums cold and dry board is dead and nothing new to track that is imminent. Rough hobby

3 minutes ago, BlizzardBill said:

What a difference a week makes.. this time last week this place was hopping 10 new posts a min at peak times. Some longtime posters who came back on to post. Was an exciting stretch as We were looking down the barrel at biggest storm in a few years and models were showing another possible blizzard for this coming weekend. Now back to the doldrums cold and dry board is dead and nothing new to track that is imminent. Rough hobby

Rare to get back to back monsters in one week....

4 minutes ago, BlizzardBill said:

What a difference a week makes.. this time last week this place was hopping 10 new posts a min at peak times. Some longtime posters who came back on to post. Was an exciting stretch as We were looking down the barrel at biggest storm in a few years and models were showing another possible blizzard for this coming weekend. Now back to the doldrums cold and dry board is dead and nothing new to track that is imminent. Rough hobby

The 6th-7th is still very trackable, IMO.

Interesting, the Euro is now the furthest north with the 4th. It's disorganized, but it brings an area of snow to CNJ.

EUro looks pretty good for the 6th and 7th.

That's basically no coastal development at all, so a solid 2" just from a clipper.

few chances next week it seems to freshen up the piles

FEB - 8

13 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

FEB - 8

There goes another ruined football party because of snow.

10 minutes ago, Redo said:

There goes another ruined football party because of snow.

Isn't it more of an evening of 2/7 into very early hours of 2/8 timing? Probably 2-4 inches at best and finished by no later than like 4 or 5am or something like that. No reason to postpone Super Bowl parties for that timing and that little snow.

2 hours ago, Analog1888 said:

NYC is 6.5 at 10 to 1

Norlun look to that snowfall pattern ..

1 hour ago, Rdd9108 said:

West Central Florida may get more snow than most people on this forum according to the NAM

When is last time Tampa had a measurable snowfall??

3 minutes ago, dbc said:

Isn't it more of an evening of 2/7 into very early hours of 2/8 timing? Probably 2-4 inches at best and finished by no later than like 4 or 5am or something like that. No reason to postpone Super Bowl parties for that timing and that little snow.

That is good news. But for a Hecs. I would gladly lose my deposit.

Just now, Keith O said:

Norlun look to that snowfall pattern ..

Goofus needs more support as we get closer obviously for anyone to actually believe that's possible. Norlun's are usually almost impossible to nail down until very close to showtime.

4 minutes ago, dbc said:

Goofus needs more support as we get closer obviously for anyone to actually believe that's possible. Norlun's are usually almost impossible to nail down until very close to showtime.

Yes but it isn't JUST a Norlun. There's a 963 MB low there!

Could be a nickle and dime kind of week with the clippers with a chance for something bigger if one can blow up near the coast

9 minutes ago, Keith O said:

When is last time Tampa had a measurable snowfall??

1977

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL

111 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An Extreme Cold Warning and a Freeze Warning are in effect for

much of west central and southwest Florida Saturday night

through Sunday morning.

- A Gale Warning is in effect for all coastal waters from

Saturday morning through Sunday morning.

- Extremely hazardous marine conditions and a high risk of strong

rip currents at area beaches this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1225 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

High pressure has shifted eastward some today, which has led to a

less-cool morning and a relatively warmer afternoon across the

region. The forecast for the weekend and next week remains very

similar to previous forecasts and the overall philosophy is pretty

much unchanged. Still looking at cyclogenesis over the eastern

Gulf which will lead to an area of showers developing and pushing

onshore toward daybreak. Light showers are expected off and on

throughout the day, especially along the coast from Pinellas

southward and also south of I-4. This low will then move off the

mid-Atlantic coast and rapidly intensify, leading to a very tight

pressure gradient over the local area as strong high pressure

builds over the region. Winds will rapidly become breezier during

the day on Saturday and a Wind Advisory has been issued for the

entire forecast area with gusts to around 40 mph or greater in

some spots, especially near the coast. These winds will also be

ushering in a much colder air mass and so temperatures will not

rise much throughout the day, if at all. All of this: light

showers, strong winds, and cooler temperatures, will make outdoor

activities rather miserable if you are unlucky enough to get

caught in all of it at once.

Again poaching some of the previous forecast discussion, below

are the hazards associated with this event, starting from the

highest likelihood of occurrence:

- Extremely hazardous marine conditions will develop over the

weekend and a Gale Warning is in effect for Saturday through

Sunday morning. A few gusts to storm force are expected as well.

- The arctic air will also usher in the coldest temperatures of

the year. An Extreme Cold Warning is in effect for all west

central and southwest Florida with the exception of Pinellas,

coastal Hillsborough, Coastal Manatee, Sarasota, Coastal

Charlotte, and Lee counties. The criteria for an Extreme Cold

Watch is for the potential of wind chill values of 10 degrees or

less for Levy, Citrus, Sumter, and Hernando counties...and wind

chill values of 20 degrees or less for Pasco, Pinellas,

Hillsborough, Polk, Manatee, Sarasota, Manatee, Hardee, DeSoto,

Highlands, Charlotte, and Lee counties. A Freeze Warning is also

in effect for much of the region Saturday night into Sunday

morning and Freeze Warnings will likely be needed for much of

the forecast area Sunday night as well. A hard freeze is likely

across the Nature Coast Saturday night and Sunday night with

lows in the lower to mid 20s each night. Temperatures across the

interior are expected to be in the mid to upper 20s both

nights...with lower to mid 30s near the coast and across

southwest Florida. Gusty northwest winds will create wind chills

Saturday night in the single digits to teens across the Nature

Coast, in the teens across the interior, and generally in the

20s elsewhere. The wind is expected to taper off Sunday night,

with wind chills generally about 3 to 5 degrees below the

ambient temperature.

- Temperatures will run about 20 to 25 degrees below climatic

normals Saturday night through Sunday night. Could see some

record low temperatures set Saturday night/Sunday morning across

the region...some low max temperature records set on

Sunday...and some record low temperatures again Sunday

night/Monday morning.

- Along area beaches, very strong rip currents are expected to

develop Saturday through Sunday. There is also a high

probability of high surf.

- The strong northwest winds may also create water levels along

the coast from Citrus to northern Pinellas county 1 to 2 feet

above astronomical normal tide levels Saturday and Saturday

night. This is a low to moderate probability of occurrence.

- The strong winds and CAA over the coastal waters will create a

very unstable turbulent boundary layer. Residual low level

moisture will likely allow an area of cold air strato-cu to

develop over the eastern Gulf on Saturday and Saturday night.

With these extreme conditions in place, it would be expected to

see a few light showers or sprinkles to develop over the coastal

waters...Gulf effect type light showers. The backside or

northern extent of the cloud shield could see temperatures

dropping into the mid to upper 30s Saturday evening and after

midnight...which could allow the light rain showers to become

light mixed snow/rain showers or light snow showers/flurries.

Trajectories would indicate that the clouds may advect locally

onshore...with the best chance of seeing frozen precipitation

from Citrus to Pinellas/Hillsborough counties. This is a low

probability event...but not out of the realm of possibility. It

will be a race between whether temperatures can drop into the

30s before the drier air wins out and pushes any light shower

activity south of the area. It`s common in scenarios like this

that drizzle or very light rain gets reported as snow...when in

fact surface temperatures don`t support that possibility.

Once we get past the weekend shenanigans and head into next week,

the air mass will slowly modify, though temperatures will generally

remain below normals.