The suppressive cold lobe to the north is slightly west this run which allows for heights to rise a bit more out ahead of this disturbance & allow this system to turn into a light event verbatim.

12 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I know you live in the only county in the United States that has seen no warming over the last 100 years. Congratulations lol

Btw Europe has had accurate mercury thermometers for like 400 years.

You know why the Dutch invented ice skates with metal blades like 600 years ago? Because their rivers used to freeze.

Plus learn about proxy data. That's the only reason you know the Earth used to have warmer periods as well. But you have no problem accepting that as fact I bet!

So tell us what the average temperature of the earth was for January 1344 to the nearest tenth of a degree and tell me how much warmer we are to a tenth of a degree to January 2025? We will wait....

72 hours looks like a decent burst of snow for the metro.

AIGFS continues the parade of storms. Granted they’re rain storms the second week of February not sure I buy that. But definitely a strong signal for that week

Few more pics from my cousins in Wilmington NC. They got around 10”.

20 minutes ago, ChescoWeather said:

So tell us what the average temperature of the earth was for January 1344 to the nearest tenth of a degree and tell me how much warmer we are to a tenth of a degree to January 2025? We will wait....

Proxy data.

GFS IS brutally cold for next weekend.

This stretch has been crazy.

Around zero outside of NYC Thursday morning.

Than Sunday morning..

9 minutes ago, jjvesnow said:

GFS IS brutally cold for next weekend.

I hope there's some fresh snow to accompany that

Watch what's going to happen.

Central Park is going to go above freezing for like 5 minutes either tomorrow or Tuesday so that our longest below freezing stretch can get ruined.

The exact same way the stupid park recorded 0.01 of precip when ten drops fell which ruined what would have been our driest stretch on record two Autumns ago.

2nd week of Feb looks to be a -PNA/-NAO pattern. Pretty warm for much of the country outside of the NE. The farther NE you are the more favored you will be for snow in that pattern.

The place I went to in Poland is having as much as people were complaining about the sleet cutting down snow totals it did just the opposite. 1 inch of sleet equals 4 inches of snow with the cold temperatures we had during the storm and this is like we had over 20 inches of snow. But it’s not fluffy it is like a glacier. Cars that are buried are going to continue to be buried. You can’t just shovel this out you were going to have to have it melted.

Saturday, July 31, 2025 was New York City’s 6th consecutive day below freezing the day after it received at least 10 inches of snow. That is the first time that’s happened in my lifetime.

Even if we get mild temperatures this week the melt is going to be very slow. Unless we get a big rain storm in a few days with temperatures in the 50s, the snow is going to be in the ground the entire month. Any storm we get will add to that.

Just now, SnowMiser123 said:

2nd week of Feb looks to be a -PNA/-NAO pattern. Pretty warm for much of the country outside of the NE. The farther NE you are the more favored you will be for snow in that pattern.

Overrunning pattern possibly for the NE.

2 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Watch what's going to happen.

Central Park is going to go above freezing for like 5 minutes either tomorrow or Tuesday so that our longest below freezing stretch can get ruined.

The exact same way the stupid park recorded 0.01 of precip when ten drops fell which ruined what would have been our driest stretch on record two Autumns ago.

That .01 was at least legit in Elizabeth as I remember there were puddles.

Getting a confluent lobe locked in place over SE Canada will be critical, like it is on the 12z CMC. If that is not there, the -PNA will make us much warmer than current forecasts that week.

4 minutes ago, SnowMiser123 said:

Getting a confluent lobe locked in place over SE Canada will be critical, like it is on the 12z CMC. If that is not there, the -PNA will make us much warmer than current forecasts that week.

The GFS is not a warm look for the NE either, you have a PV lobe over James Bay and a 1031 high over eastern Ontario.

CMC has some overrunning around the 10th

Just now, jjvesnow said:

CMC has some overrunning around the 10th

Juiced up by clipper energy, not a terrible look.

On the GFS, +PNA looks to return a few days later. In fact, I'm not sure the PNA ever really goes truly negative. In a true negative PNA, there's a trough in the west. There's really never a trough in the west at all.

It looks more like a zonal flow for a while.

6 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

Coldest ever temperature recorded in February there.

Look at all those record lows shattered

Some back to 1800’s