26 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

euro aifs is now a clipper for valentines day weekend, models continue to point to something that weekend…. models are also very dry specially euro AIFS which is 0.2 qpf for its entire run

I would not take any

Model seriously for Presidents weekend at this juncture!

4 hours ago, Momouthweathet said:

I asked earlier aren’t you going soon?

Got here on Jan 28th, leaving on Tuesday

1 minute ago, FrankPizz said:

Got here on Jan 28th, leaving on Tuesday

Have a great time!

3 hours ago, jjvesnow said:

GFS IS brutally cold for next weekend.

Think next weekend will be coldest the rest of the way for us. 100-500mb thickness sub 498 maybe lowest of winter season and think this is the bottom of the bitter cold and a turn to more seasonable and dare I say a little AN starts showing up for our area. Can use a little snowmelt, at least on my roof and gutters prior to any liquid event to avoid gutter ice dam issues.

Keyport waterfront park. Ice as far as you can see right up to the Verrazano bridge

Great South Bay (newsday photo Jan 30 1977)

Close enough to watch

2 hours ago, Metfan88 said:

Need a brief warmup

Ber careful for what you wish for if we get a storm, rain, during this time of the warm up you'll cry us a river

One of the things has become apparent. The way we are used to using teleconnections does not work as good as it once did.

People complain about a -PNA but yet it delivered 2 snow storms in December. Same with the +PNA, it’s become much less successful. The -NAO/-AO as well has not exactly been Tony Gwynn, it’s been more like Ron Hodges.

Joe Cioffi said this back in December. The ability to forecast snowstorms in the future is going to have to change to be able to reflect more on the climate we are in now.

I am thrilled with this winter. If I don’t see another flake of snow I had over 32 inches and that is great by me. I’m sure I will see more but I’m expecting more nickel and dime stuff I’m not expecting anything big we just don’t have the set up for it. The Pacific needs to be completely realigned in order to get anything big in the future and who knows when that’s going to happen.

17 minutes ago, amugs said:

Ber careful for what you wish for if we get a storm, rain, during this time of the warm up you'll cry us a river

Not at all

34 minutes ago, amugs said:

Ber careful for what you wish for if we get a storm, rain, during this time of the warm up you'll cry us a river

Actually, a little variability may help cause storminess.

Some models

Still have this

5 minutes ago, Graupel said:

Some models

Still have this

I’m hoping this dry bust. Would suck if were dry and then our first storm is during the warmup lol

Nice trend on 18z AIGFS last 4 runs

Still have 7-10” snow depth here pretty cool how sleet just locks it in.

2 minutes ago, Graupel said:

Still have 7-10” snow depth here pretty cool how sleet just locks it in.

And if you break the top layer it’s still all powder under it

2 hours ago, Keith O said:

Think next weekend will be coldest the rest of the way for us. 100-500mb thickness sub 498 maybe lowest of winter season and think this is the bottom of the bitter cold and a turn to more seasonable and dare I say a little AN starts showing up for our area. Can use a little snowmelt, at least on my roof and gutters prior to any liquid event to avoid gutter ice dam issues.

Yeah no doubt. It’s been crazy cold and heading into mid February we are due form a warmer time.

Saturday could see the debut appearance of the extreme cold warning.

Just need to freshen up this pack

Gfs says yes