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Balance of January and all of February with a Hint of March Storm Tracking Thread

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1 hour ago, uofmiami said:

Groundhog baby on the way.

Oh yeah, we need to know if he or she sees their shadow.

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New Euro is much colder for basically the entire country in the long range.

45 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

New Euro is much colder for basically the entire country in the long range.

The only thing is 850 mb temperatures aren't all that cold next week. Granted the source region is colder than normal, but next week's temperatures may correct upward.

2 hours ago, tmagan said:

The only thing is 850 mb temperatures aren't all that cold next week. Granted the source region is colder than normal, but next week's temperatures may correct upward.

Thicknesses are very low though, so somewhere in the atmosphere is very cold. Interesting.

8 hours ago, Analog1888 said:

Oh yeah, we need to know if he or she sees their shadow.

Lol both groundhogs saw their shadow. 6 weeks more of winter. Well, duh, we did not need them to tell us that. Sure we probably get a brief thaw. It wants to be cold and it wants to snow more this winter than recent past winters. It'll likely continue overall for the most part.

1 minute ago, dbc said:

Lol both groundhogs saw their shadow. 6 weeks more of winter. Well, duh, we did not need them to tell us that. Sure we probably get a brief thaw. It wants to be cold and it wants to snow more this winter than recent past winters. It'll likely continue overall for the most part.

Yeah I agree and because we live in the mid latitudes, it may warm up briefly between cold spells, that's how it works.

7 minutes ago, dbc said:

Lol both groundhogs saw their shadow. 6 weeks more of winter. Well, duh, we did not need them to tell us that. Sure we probably get a brief thaw. It wants to be cold and it wants to snow more this winter than recent past winters. It'll likely continue overall for the most part.

Think Phil has been wrong like 13 of last 17 years so there is that ..

21 minutes ago, Keith O said:

Think Phil has been wrong like 13 of last 17 years so there is that ..

Groundhog Day What GIF

1 minute ago, dbc said:

Groundhog Day What GIF

He has something like a 39% record and sees his shadow like 70% of the time IIRC.

This is incredible - we are going to break the 16 day streak IF this all verifies - it went colder again.

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One of our mildest morning lows in over 10 days here in Chester County with all stations remaining in the low to mid-teens. Today and tomorrow look like our mildest days over the next week. High temperatures today will be in the upper 20’s, and some spots tomorrow have a chance to reach freezing or above for the first time in 11 days. We turn colder again to close out the work week and will turn significantly colder again by the weekend with temperatures remaining in the teens for highs. We have a couple of minor snow chances this week - the first on Tuesday night and another on Friday.

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15 minutes ago, amugs said:

This is incredible - we are going to break the 16 day streak IF this all verifies - it went colder again.

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today will be the 10 day in a row with a below freezing high...This winter will join these as the winters with at least ten days in a row of below freezing highs and a snowstorm at least 10"...since 1947...

1947-48...Dec snow...late Jan cold...

1957-58...March snow...Feb cold...

1960-61...Dec-Feb snows...Jan-Feb cold...

1977-78...Jan-Feb snows...Jan-Feb cold...

1978-79...Feb snow and cold...

2000-01...Dec snow and cold...

2002-03...Feb snow and Jan cold...

2017-18...Jan snow Dec-Jan cold...snowfall was 9.8"...

2025-26...Jan snow...Jan-Feb cold...

Pretty uneventful model runs overnight, couple of snow showers maybe followed by rain week of the 14th, which will probably verify 2 weeks in advance since rain always does

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1113600.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850-1113600.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-precip_24hr_inch-1113600.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-mslp_with_low_locs-1113600.png

Ben Solo I guess we wait until the 15th!

3 minutes ago, Graupel said:

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Followed by brutal cold!!

up to 30 here...last I looked it was 26 in Central Park at 11am...its going to get close to 32...

1 minute ago, uncle w said:

up to 30 here...last I looked it was 26 in Central Park at 11am...its going to get close to 32...

Tomorrow looks iffy, GEMLAM has the park reaching 35

These are the coldest 7 days after New York City received at least a 10 inch snow storm. These are not worthy because the majority of the time after such a storm it gets warmer after a storm like that.

Feb 5-11 1995 24.7 degrees

Jan 24-30 2005 21.3 degrees

Jan 26-Feb 1 2026 17.6 degrees

Feb 5-9 1995 were 32 or below for a total of five consecutive days at or below freezing.

Jan 26-Feb 1 2026 were below freezing for a total of seven consecutive days and counting.

People can try to downplay this all they want to but the fact is that we are in the coldest period After a 10 inch snowstorm in New York City Central Park in at least my lifetime which is 59 years. People can ignore it or turn their heads to it or say it’s nothing but to me this is very significant and it is definitely noteworthy, especially given the fact of how warm it has been in this decade it is even more impressive.

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