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Balance of January and all of February with a Hint of March Storm Tracking Thread

USAwx
USAwx
in Northeast Weather Discussion

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26 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

There is a quick 5 to 7d warmup across the CONUS and in some places its a torch

However how warm we get here will be probably how much the NAO and the 5050 can keep us jusy slightly AN

Then after the 20th we revert back to this winters mean

Screenshot_20260204_094058_Discord.jpg

What dates do you expect the warmup!

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  • USAwx
    USAwx

    .

  • THE GREAT PB
    THE GREAT PB

    And your friend P. B. called Jan 15 - Feb 15 from early January. Not too shabby. Next period Feb 20 - March 10. Going to run this winter BN wire to wire November - March. Just crazy

  • Metfan88
    Metfan88

    Wife in labor

4 hours ago, Momouthweathet said:

Anthony are the temperatures marginal?

Its February

Marginal works

1 hour ago, Momouthweathet said:

What dates do you expect the warmup!

Prior to the 20th

GGEM looks very interesting at the end of its run.

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    image.png

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    8 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

    GGEM looks very interesting at the end of its run.

    image.png

    1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

    image.png

    Yes and that moved north from the previous frame.

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    12Z EURO Ai for Saturday

    1770487200-Y03o8rFsilE.png

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    Close Up

    1770552000-amGZOcYvV3Q.png

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    Saturday plus Tuesday night into Wed Morning

    1770811200-7xwe9pt5f7A.png

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    image.png

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    EURO major ice storm Feb 11 for NNJ, then Valentine's Day love!

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    • My God 1

    Regular EURO snows lightly from

    1770508800-wOqhQQjAUKI.png

    ecmwf-deterministic-ne-instant_ptype-177

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    sn10_acc-imp.us_ne.png

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    • My God 1

    image.png

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    Valentines/President's Day weekend continue to carry the potential for an Archambault type event .. On and off the model runs and flipping back and forth between Euro and GFS but consistent this is the timeframe to watch.

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    D 5 - 15

    ecmwf-aifs-ensemble-avg-ne-snow_240hr-1264800.png

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    AI loves the 11th

    ecmwf-aifs-ensemble-avg-conus-mslp_with_low_locs-0876000.png

    ecmwf-aifs-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1135200 (1).png

    ecmwf-aifs-ensemble-avg-east-precip_24hr_inch-0919200 (1).png

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    4 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

    D 5 - 15

    ecmwf-aifs-ensemble-avg-ne-snow_240hr-1264800.png

    Looks like more than 1/2 of this is from the event it has on 2/11 so not much with the VDay weekend storm

    1 hour ago, Keith O said:

    Looks like more than 1/2 of this is from the event it has on 2/11 so not much with the VDay weekend storm

    Like the VDay storm potential. Has been showing up for at least a week

    • Like 2

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