Thats up to 2 inches w 40mph gusts

CMC would be nice next Sunday, models all over the place

It’s possible that someone,especially in eastern areas, albeit for an hour or 2 sees some of the most intense winter weather that we’ve seen in years. Someone could briefly see true blizzard conditions. This could be an arctic frontal passage that you remember 20 years from now. I’m excited. I think this rivals Christmas Eve 1980 as far as an arctic frontal passsage goes. Let me know if you disagree

T)

Overnight and 6z models trended towards a wetter warmer solution next week…. Will prob change by 12z but it’s starting to look like next week into the weekend is gonna be active one way or the other

6z Euro still way colder than other models for the high on Sunday.

It has 7 degress at 1PM for NYC. Other models are 10 degrees warmer.

Even the 6z Euro AI is 10 degrees warmer.

2 minutes ago, Sundog said:

6z Euro still way colder than other models for the high on Sunday.

It has 7 degress at 1PM for NYC. Other models are 10 degrees warmer.

Even the 6z Euro AI is 10 degrees warmer.

take the other models for the over...

2 hours ago, lindywx said:

It’s possible that someone,especially in eastern areas, albeit for an hour or 2 sees some of the most intense winter weather that we’ve seen in years. Someone could briefly see true blizzard conditions. This could be an arctic frontal passage that you remember 20 years from now. I’m excited. I think this rivals Christmas Eve 1980 as far as an arctic frontal passsage goes. Let me know if you disagree

I remember that front living in Bergen County. Plunged to -6F by Christmas morning!

Ho hum ... another low of 1F this AM. Been single digit or below zero lows 11 of last 13 days and will add next 5 nights to this to go 16 of 18. Wind going to make Sat feel like coldest day of year but actual highs on Sat/Sun will not be different than some of colder days in later Jan. This maybe the last true arctic intrusion of this winter season and hope to get 1"+ of leaf blower snow Fri night to freshen up the glacier that NW NJ. No real melting till maybe 2nd half of next week and that's iffy. Many homes and businesses dealing with ice dams on roofs around here so would not mind a bit of melt to clear the roofs and gutters before any liquid precip event, whenever that might be.

Today, across multiple sites in Chester County will be the 13th consecutive day with below freezing temperatures. This is already the 3rd longest streak since 1893. These locations should establish a new prolonged cold record on Monday which will be the 17th day. Also, today will be the 20th consecutive day with continuous snow cover. This is the 22nd longest stretch with snow cover since 1893 and our longest streak since the 32 days from January 31, 2021 through March 3, 2021. Our greatest stretch was the 61 days back in 1978 from January 12th through March 13th. We continue with well below normal temperatures through early next week. An arctic cold front crosses the area overnight Friday into Saturday morning likely to bring potentially brief heavy snow squalls with an inch or two of snow possible in spots with briefly poor visibility and driving conditions. Highs for Saturday will occur just before dawn with temperatures then crash into the single digits during the day with wind chills in the minus teens below zero. What a memorable winter this has already been and we still have more than 6 weeks to go!

2 hours ago, nycsnow said:

Overnight and 6z models trended towards a wetter warmer solution next week…. Will prob change by 12z but it’s starting to look like next week into the weekend is gonna be active one way or the other

Cold eases so wouldn’t be surprised. Been almost a month since most saw liquid precip

2 to 3 inches of snow on Long Island

2 Nassau , 3 Suffolk

Saturday

Just now, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

2 to 3 inches of snow on Long Island

2 Nassau , 3 Suffolk

Saturday

What do you think for next week? Models have every solution possible

Just now, nycsnow said:

What do you think for next week? Models have every solution possible

Depends on how strong the block is

SWFE favor a thump and a changeover here.

I got 9 inches of snow and 3 inches of sleet 2 weeks ago because I started at 9 degrees

That airmass is not in place next week.

So if the block pushes its ok. If it lets up just a bit its a typical SWFE.

Cant tell yet

Im looking for 2 inches of fluff Saturday w 40mph gusts on the backside

Deep winter this weekend, coldest period in 30 yrs

Just now, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

Depends on how strong the block is

SWFE favor a thump and a changeover here.

I got 9 inches of snow and 3 inches of sleet 2 weeks ago because I started at 9 degrees

That airmass is not in place next week.

So if the block pushes its ok. If it lets up just a bit its a typical SWFE.

Cant tell yet

Im looking for 2 inches of fluff Saturday w 40mph gusts on the backside

Deep winter this weekend, coldest period in 30 yrs

Most models have the SWFE and a follow up storm of some sort.

People away said you would never see a 30 day period like this unless a Volcano went off.

Lastly not sure how long we break " if we break "..

TPV will reappear during the last week I. FEB

Just now, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

People away said you would never see a 30 day period like this unless a Volcano went off.

Lastly not sure how long we break " if we break "..

TPV will reappear during the last week I. FEB

Yeah a lot of the guidance is not all that warm for the east during the break.

4 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

Most models have the SWFE and a follow up storm of some sort.

Would like the boundary to start out further south TBH

1 minute ago, Analog1888 said:

Yeah a lot of the guidance is not all that warm for the east during the break.

AIFS doesn't break at all