Low of 3F this AM, single digit or below zero lows 12 of last 14 days and will add next 4 nights to this with likely coldest low of year on Sun or Mon AM. NWS forecast now 1-2" of fluff tonight s that will be nice to freshen up my 8" of glacier snowpack though the winds tomorrow will have this drifting all over the place. Longest stretch I have gone with 6"+ snow cover in a long time and probably hold onto this for at least another 10 days.

The cold this weekend is associated with a more shallow layer of cold air… it looks like the lowest 850 temps only get down to about -15C near NYC metro.. which generally isn’t too bad and is typical with just a pretty cold day.. but 925 temps are colder… it’s shallow, but it’s darn cold.. if we had an overrunning event with this airmass, we’d be talking about a potential major sleet and/or freezing rain event

5 minutes ago, Tornadojay said:

The cold this weekend is associated with a more shallow layer of cold air… it looks like the lowest 850 temps only get down to about -15C near NYC metro.. which generally isn’t too bad and is typical with just a pretty cold day.. but 925 temps are colder… it’s shallow, but it’s darn cold.. if we had an overrunning event with this airmass, we’d be talking about a potential major sleet and/or freezing rain event

Sounds a lot like 1994

1 minute ago, Analog1888 said:

Sounds a lot like 1994

Yea.. that was a rough one.. I’m sick of the cold already. 40 degrees is gonna feel like 100 after this

7.3 this morning

Our coldest weather of the year is on the way over this weekend. Snow showers should begin from west to east across the area this evening with occasional snow showers and maybe a snow squall tomorrow morning. The high tomorrow will be overnight tonight but quickly fall into the single digits above zero during the day tomorrow with winds gusting as high as 50mph. The extreme cold warning goes into effect at 3pm tomorrow. Snow amounts will be light with between a coating and an inch at most. We should finally warm up to near freezing by Tuesday with a chance for some freezing rain or rain by Wednesday with temperatures just above freezing in most spots.

NAM is basically light snow all day tomorrow, very wintry

Clipper’s often don’t make it over the mountains. But those E of NYC should do well via redevelopment/ Norlun.

C-1” here

Models cutting back on tonight's "event", looking like a windblown C to 1/2", really going to look and feel like tundra tomorrow with 50+ wind gusts. Losing power with single digit actuals and -20 to -30 wind chills would be horrible. Trees are more vulnerable to issues with temps that low combined with the extreme winds.

Radar looks pretty good in WPA currently. Clipper is pretty juiced. Should be able to lock in a 1-3" snowfall around here.

EURO AI has been rock steady with amounts for the clipper.
.5 to maybe 2" for some upsloping of the upper elevation/mountain areas.
This is 10:1 ratio but snowfall will be upwards of 20:1 so you can do the math and almost double some these amounts:


Enlarge this imageClick to see fullsize

The wind chills are going to be brutal Saturday and Sunday morning.

As I texted friends last night what's not to like as winter weenie this weekend, up to 1.5/2" of snow, wind gusts 40 mph plus, wind chills near -15 to -20 below and blowing snow?

ICON looks at least somewhat similar to the 6z Euro so far for the weekend storm

12Z ICON not biting on the 6-10" event the GFS has for NNJ on 2/10-2/11 .. little bit of rain before reinforcing cold shot

6 minutes ago, Keith O said:

12Z ICON not biting on the 6-10" event the GFS has for NNJ on 2/10-2/11 .. little bit of rain before reinforcing cold shot

Icon usually lags the other models but I follow only GFS,

AI- Euro- AI way more accurate!

26 minutes ago, Keith O said:

12Z ICON not biting on the 6-10" event the GFS has for NNJ on 2/10-2/11 .. little bit of rain before reinforcing cold shot

Gfs same

GFS might be setting up something interesting mid month.

23 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Gfs same

Little salt cleaning wouldn’t hurt