5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Pushing it all out now. Might be close to 3-4 weeks of dry or rain since our MECS

Unfortunately we’ve seen this way to often lately

It's still snowing on the east end

snow to rain to snow on AIgfs looks like

Winds howling temp at 7*

Wind chills -10-20

.I tauk needed a Warning

Only good thing about today is it marks the coldest day (real feel and probably actusl real high, not the fake midnight one) of this season and will not be matched. Only gets warmer from here on out.

Imagine a coastal storm in this…. Would be epic

8 degrees

Highest gust was 43.4

51 minutes ago, amugs said:

.I tauk needed a Warning

The 'zone' goes from William Floyd Parkway east, most of which received under warning criteria snowfall.

ISP 50mph gust

Newark and Kennedy met high wind warning criteria.

It’s cold I took a Jeb walk in Tom River around a lake (and partly over it).

9 minutes ago, Graupel said:

It’s cold I took a Jeb walk in Tom River around a lake (and partly over it).

Yeah took the dogs out. Freezing

I honestly don’t believe we don’t get any more significant snow until very late in February or even early March.

The driest February on record was 0.46. Feb 2002 had 0.76. We may have to start thinking about that because it doesn’t seem to be any real significant precipitation chances.

All the forecast for a blockbuster Perry with storm after the storm never materialized. But this is now the third consecutive winter where when the cold did come, it was bone dry. The only exception really was a storm we had on January 25 but since then it’s been dry.

A few similarities between this winter in the winter of 1976-77 with the cold and the very good snow cover, and also the dryness and lack of snow out west.

2 minutes ago, Andrew said:

I honestly don’t believe we don’t get any more significant snow until very late in February or even early March.

The driest February on record was 0.46. Feb 2002 had 0.76. We may have to start thinking about that because it doesn’t seem to be any real significant precipitation chances.

All the forecast for a blockbuster Perry with storm after the storm never materialized. But this is now the third consecutive winter where when the cold did come, it was bone dry. The only exception really was a storm we had on January 25 but since then it’s been dry.

A few similarities between this winter in the winter of 1976-77 with the cold and the very good snow cover, and also the dryness and lack of snow out west.

Actually this is way wrong, because if anything, the models that do not have snow have two pretty heavy rainstorms for your area.

If it doesn't snow, it's not going to be because it's too dry, but because the pattern relaxed and it got warm for a week.

Basically all models show a very active STJ in that timeframe.

Your best hope for snow is if the wave can ride to the south like the last two ECMWF runs have shown.

GFS:

ECMWF:

GGEM (only 10 days)*:

The GGEM does not go out far enough to show those moisture-laden systems that the other two models show.

You can see from these models that it COULD be even wetter (look to the west), but probably will not be, because of the block.

This is CMC ensembles:

ECMWF ENSEMBLE:

GFS ENS:

And finally EC AI ENS:

1 minute ago, Analog1888 said:

This is CMC ensembles:

ECMWF ENSEMBLE:

GFS ENS:

And finally EC AI ENS:

Lot of rain coming verbatim…. Could change tomorrow

Just now, nycsnow said:

Lot of rain coming verbatim…. Could change tomorrow

Oh yes, it could just disappear. I’m actually hoping that we get the rain cause I can’t take this salt. There is salt everywhere.

The big concern as we get warmer and possibly weather is ice jam flooding on some of the rivers, but the fact that it’s been dry should help that not be too bad. Unless we end up getting something like 3-5 inches of rain over for 15 day period.