Taking a nice walk. Temp is 6.

Very cold out and windy 5 degrees.

If we get big rains need some warmth to melt roof and gutters prior to significant rains. Big rains with ice dams in gutters is disastrous.

49 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

Actually this is way wrong, because if anything, the models that do not have snow have two pretty heavy rainstorms for your area.

If it doesn't snow, it's not going to be because it's too dry, but because the pattern relaxed and it got warm for a week.

Basically all models show a very active STJ in that timeframe.

Your best hope for snow is if the wave can ride to the south like the last two ECMWF runs have shown.

GFS:

ECMWF:

GGEM (only 10 days)*:

The GGEM does not go out far enough to show those moisture-laden systems that the other two models show.

You can see from these models that it COULD be even wetter (look to the west), but probably will not be, because of the block.

Active STJ when we lose cold. Quiet STJ when the cold is here. Sad story but we have seen it many times here before and no one should be surprised. I pretty much have the snow totals that Newark has which is near or at normal and just to my west like for @Keith O @amugs @gkrangers and @BMC10 it is above normal for the season already.

We had a great many snow cover days this winter some of it deeper in depth for a longer length of time than we had in probably 10 plus years here if not longer. If it is time for it to melt and wash away then so be it. We just all have to take the hit like men and move on.

2 minutes ago, dbc said:

Active STJ when we lose cold. Quiet STJ when the cold is here. Sad story but we have seen it many times here before and no one should be surprised. I pretty much have the snow totals that Newark has which is near or at normal and just to my west like for @Keith O @amugs @gkrangers and @BMC10 it is above normal for the season already.

We had a great many snow cover days this winter some of it deeper in depth for a longer length of time than we had in probably 10 plus years here if not longer. If it is time for it to melt and wash away then so be it. We just all have to take the hit like men and move on.

Winter is not over

Just now, Analog1888 said:

Winter is not over

Of course not but the long stretch of deep snow cover is likely coming to an end if the active STJ during a warmer period coming up verifies.

If we’re not getting fresh snow every week or every other week I could live without brutal cold and concrete block snowpack that happened a month ago

49 minutes ago, dbc said:

Active STJ when we lose cold. Quiet STJ when the cold is here. Sad story but we have seen it many times here before and no one should be surprised. I pretty much have the snow totals that Newark has which is near or at normal and just to my west like for @Keith O @amugs @gkrangers and @BMC10 it is above normal for the season already.

We had a great many snow cover days this winter some of it deeper in depth for a longer length of time than we had in probably 10 plus years here if not longer. If it is time for it to melt and wash away then so be it. We just all have to take the hit like men and move on.

I am around 27 inches of snow for the year. I would assume my average is 35-40 a year for my area so not far off.

It has been a very cold winter thoughZ. Seems like it’s been cold since Thanksgiving.

Temp 2.3 right now.

46 minutes ago, dbc said:

Of course not but the long stretch of deep snow cover is likely coming to an end if the active STJ during a warmer period coming up verifies.

I am going to say this might be the last of the brutally cold. Temps below 10 for day time highs.

We are getting to mid Feb soon, and that sun angle is starting to creep upwards.

By the way. The GEFS are pretty snowy

5 minutes ago, jjvesnow said:

I am going to say this might be the last of the brutally cold. Temps below 10 for day time highs.

We are getting to mid Feb soon, and that sun angle is starting to creep upwards.

By the time you get to about Feb 20, you really start to notice it. March 1996 had some single digits.

1 minute ago, Analog1888 said:

By the time you get to about Feb 20, you really start to notice it. March 1996 had some single digits.

Not saying it can’t happen, but it gets more and more unlikely.

I mean. How long can we hold on to “deep winter”?

Islip has a gust to 56. This is the first time I can remember that we had temperatures below 10 with over 50 mph winds. The only other time I can think of is maybe Christmas Day 1980.

1 hour ago, dbc said:

Active STJ when we lose cold. Quiet STJ when the cold is here. Sad story but we have seen it many times here before and no one should be surprised. I pretty much have the snow totals that Newark has which is near or at normal and just to my west like for @Keith O @amugs @gkrangers and @BMC10 it is above normal for the season already.

We had a great many snow cover days this winter some of it deeper in depth for a longer length of time than we had in probably 10 plus years here if not longer. If it is time for it to melt and wash away then so be it. We just all have to take the hit like men and move on.

Great post

I will say add that:

• I don’t think I’ve seen snow last this long like this has. It’s literally been two weeks since the big dump with nothing after (today’s dusting notwithstanding) and looks about the same as it did immediately after it snowed (minus the dog pee spots)

• Feb 2021 was a far better snow cover period here. We had two feet then 8” 6 days later and another couple reinforcing 2-5” events.

I’m at about 30” for the season - if winter ended today, it’d be a solid B. I’m not a huge cold-for-the-sake-of-it guy, but I love extended snow cover, which we’ve had this winter in spades. But the last few weeks and upcoming 10 days (if things don’t break right snow wise) have been a pretty big disappointment given how ripe the pattern seemed.

Icon gives sne more snow the 11-12… incredible winter for them

29 minutes ago, danstorm said:

Great post

I will say add that:

• I don’t think I’ve seen snow last this long like this has. It’s literally been two weeks since the big dump with nothing after (today’s dusting notwithstanding) and looks about the same as it did immediately after it snowed (minus the dog pee spots)

• Feb 2021 was a far better snow cover period here. We had two feet then 8” 6 days later and another couple reinforcing 2-5” events.

I’m at about 30” for the season - if winter ended today, it’d be a solid B. I’m not a huge cold-for-the-sake-of-it guy, but I love extended snow cover, which we’ve had this winter in spades. But the last few weeks and upcoming 10 days (if things don’t break right snow wise) have been a pretty big disappointment given how ripe the pattern seemed.

Yes you have, 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 winter had more snow and lasted just as long if not longer

21 minutes ago, heavysnow said:

Yes you have, 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 winter had more snow and lasted just as long if not longer

Yes and no. Days, yes. But it was constantly being replenished

I dont see a snowy pattern ahead for us. MJO isn't going to be favorable.

The worst might be past us soon

3 hours ago, Metfan88 said:

I dont see a snowy pattern ahead for us. MJO isn't going to be favorable.

The worst might be past us soon

You can add the PNA and the AO to the list 👎🏻

That’ll cause some flooding