NBM

Its crazy if it wasnt for ratios alot of predictions wouldve busted. Mositure has been lacking .

1 hour ago, nycsnow said:

Def flooding with this bad boy

Especially with ice jams

2 hours ago, Graupel said:

There it is.

Am I seeing Ben Solo jackpot?

we could see a similar set up as Dec 14th but with a colder Ocean this time...AO was positive...nao was going pos...pna was neg...so hope for the best...

About 9 of the 50 aifs-ens are really nice hits..it is something

Euro and EPS got cooler in the long range 

19 minutes ago, Metfan88 said:

Euro and EPS got cooler in the long range 

Expected!!

Tuesday into Wednesday AM

Ice issues seems to be creeping in

RGEM

3K NAM

NAM

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Does look a little colder??

1 minute ago, Momouthweathet said:

Does look a little colder??

Yea it’s a southern slider that’s about as far north it gets so def cooler

KEY MESSAGE 3...
A deep Pacific trof is expected to spawn low pres E of the Rockies
by Sat, then track it across the Southeast and offshore by Mon,
potentially passing close enough to impact the local area. The
modeling has been consistent with the general idea of the storm, but
there remains a high amount of uncertainty with the details.

Most of the data suggests a W to E, or SW to NE type track, not
making a big hook up the coast. The arctic air thus far looks
limited, so this could be a sys with a lot of mixed pcpn and rain,
with a decent freezing rain threat inland if the low tracks to the S
and the flow remains backed at the sfc. Too far out to have
confidence in the details, and with the AIGFS consistently S of the
area, it could end up being just a glancing blow or nothing at all.
Still, with the multi-model support, the NBM is producing a 60-70
pop for the event. Stuck with the NBM for the fcst, but of all the
fields the temps in particular may be much too high for the event if
the flow remains backed and CAD occurs

Been a caddy year

3 minutes ago, Graupel said:

Been a caddy year

Yes it has the torch models where showing have ALL been muted and washed out. +TNH FTW!!

Surface when zr hits the area

You could conceivably still have reports of rain, yet it would still freeze on the snowpack.

Euro ai wayyy south still