I am speechless

2 minutes ago, goldalex said:

Not sure tbh

Will try to see if there is a workaround once on PC

Truly amazing

There will be nothing left of NJ if NAM verifies…

Model guidance has continued to converge on the evolution,
track, and intensity of the system. Low pressure will quickly
develop off along the North Carolina coast Sunday morning and
rapidly intensify Sunday evening into Monday morning as it
slowly lifts north-north east towards the 40N/70W bookmark.
There have been some minor fluctuation within the guidance on
the exact location of the low and whether it passes just inside,
over, or just east of the benchmark. However, little change to
the overall impacts would occur in these scenarios. Ensemble
solutions that were passing much further offshore with a graze
scenario are continuing to look less and less likely. Model
guidance shows pressures rapidly falling Sunday night with the
low deepening around 970 mb as it nears the benchmark. Some
guidance even has it a few mb lower. The low occludes and gets
captured by the upper low with deepening ending and the low
beginning to level off as it lifts NE to off the Cape Monday
night.

Light snow, or a mix of rain and snow, may develop Sunday
morning, but steadier snow should begin overspreading the area
from south to north in the afternoon and evening. Surface
temperatures initially will be above freezing so little to no
impact from any snow expected through early afternoon. Once the
precip intensity increases mid to late Sunday afternoon,
accumulations should begin more efficiently on colder surfaces,
and then roadways Sunday evening as temperatures drop below
freezing. Since there will be little to no impact in the morning,
the start time of the Blizzard Warnings and Winter Storm
Warnings have been moved to 1pm Sunday. This may still be a bit
early, but overall conditions will deteriorate as the evening
approaches.

The explosive development of the low pressure will aid in the
expansion of snow well north and west of the low center. Bands
of moderate to heavy snow will rotate from the southeast to the
northwest during the evening into the overnight as the cyclone
rapidly deepens. These bands of moderate to heavy snow will
continue into Monday morning withing the comma head of the storm
(typically to the N and W of the center of low pressure). These
lingering bands will diminish as the low pulls away Monday
afternoon.

The system is now getting within the range of the high res
guidance and we are beginning to see notable trends of an uptick
in QPF. These changes may move around a bit in the next 24
hours, but overall the trend supports increasing snowfall totals
from the previous forecast. Total snowfall ranges from 12-16
inches inland and S CT to around 15-20 inches closer to the
coast.

There is a reasonable worse case for around 2 ft+ of snow. The
chance for these amounts may be closer to the coast/Long Island,
but cannot entirely rule this out even inland if heavier bands
shift further NW away from the low center. There are still
several ECMWF-EPS ensemble members that are very likely skewing
the overall distribution of the probabilistic snow. These
members have started trending up with the latest 12z EPS,
lending more confidence that the low end amounts are unlikely to
be correct.

Intense dynamics are expected with this storm including strong
difluence and intense frontogenesis all lead to heavy banding
potential and heavy snowfall rates Sunday night into Monday
morning. The cold conveyor belt late Sunday night and Monday
morning appears to sit right on top of the area which will help
the bands remain in place for a while and generally snow
themselves out as the storm starts departing.

Snowfall rates increase Sunday evening, becoming 1-2" per hour
with locally up to 3 inches per hour at times. Several major
winter storms in recent history have produced large heavy snow
bands in the deformation zone with rates locally as high as 4"
per hour. This cannot be ruled out given the type of storm being
depicted by the models.

There is also a chance of a few lightning strikes in the heavier
banding Sunday night into Monday morning. Have not included thunder
in the forecast yet, but cannot ruled this potential out.

Winds will also be quite strong with this storm. Model
soundings show boundary layer winds along the coast 40-60kt with
decent mixing. Coastal locations can expect to see gusts up 45
to 55 mph, possibly even stronger across far eastern LI and
southeast CT up to 60 or 65 mph. Inland areas will be weaker,
but could still see frequent gusts 35 to 45 mph. The highest
winds will occur Sunday night into the first half of Monday.

The blizzard warnings were expanded to higher confidence in
considerable falling snow, strong winds, and poor visibility
well away from the coast. Near-blizzard conditions are possible
outside the blizzard warning.

The snowfall character will start wet and then gradually become
drier as the event matures Sunday night into Monday. Ratios
likely average around 10:1 early on, possibly lower Sunday
afternoon, before averaging around 11-13:1 overnight Sunday into
Monday morning.

Where is Virgaman? Is he ok

ICON west of 12z

2 minutes ago, SnowMiser123 said:

ICON west of 12z

has weird snow output

38 minutes ago, Monmouth Weather said:

Jersey destroyed!

RGEM still on the lower end

It is mind-numbingly annoying that less than 24 hours out there is no consensus on at least the track and strength of the storm nevermind snow totals.

2 minutes ago, Sundog said:

RGEM still on the lower end

Decent tick up from 12z for Jersey

Just now, SnowMiser123 said:

Decent tick up from 12z for Jersey

that one narrow deform is all over the canadian models

outside of that deform, storm is pedestrian

1 minute ago, dbc said:

It is mind-numbingly annoying that less than 24 hours out there is no consensus on at least the track and strength of the storm nevermind snow totals.

What? lol

Just now, SnowMiser123 said:

Decent tick up from 12z for Jersey

Yeah not agreeing with this.. Canadian still playing catch up even it’s snow total distribution is weird .. no other model has less then 18” where it has 10” along coast.

As of 12z, the spread on rgem was STILL LARGE TO THE LEFT. OP IS ON CRACK

OK here is my forecast for selected cities:
Newark/Metro NE NJ: 24"

NYC proper: 24" Bronx/N Manhattan, N Staten Island, 22" near shores

Interior NE NJ: 22"

Morris/Southern Sussex, Hunterdon, Warren: 20"

Far Northern Sussex County, Southern Orange, Interior Rockland & Westchester: 15-20 N to S

Lower Hudson Valley: Generally 15-20 N to S

Mid Hudson Valley: 12-16 North To South

Capital District: 4-8 North to South

SW CT: 20-24"

SC CT: 18-22"

Interior CT South of 84, west of 91: 20-25"

Hartford Metro: 12-16"
All of Eastern CT: 16-20"

Boston: 18-22"

Cape: 18-25"

CNJ: 24"

Jersey Shore: 26-30"

SNJ coast: 24-28"

Philly area: 18-22"

Interior SNJ: 20-24"

Slower Lower Del: 18-24"

Eastern Shore of MD: 16-20"

DC area: 6-10"

BWI: 12-16"

DT land: 3-5"

Delmarva: 12-16" south to north

6 minutes ago, heavysnow said:

What? lol

If the GEM's, Ukie and Euro were NAM or GFS like they'd be HECS too. None of those 3 are that and obviously that is due to strength/evolution and/or track of the storm. Great storm regardless just not a HECS like the American models. To me that is an annoyance as we are 18 hours out.

Not a complaint, just an observation. I am thrilled with any snow.