Jeff smith on ABC said this storm will look like a different animal by tomorrow night with 2-3 inch hr rates and temps falling below freezing. He said there will be places seeing 2 ft in heavier bands and bulk of it occurs in a 12 hr period.

Just now, TheBomber656 said:

Am I looking at this wrong, or does the data not match the gradient color scale when zoomed in?

It looks lower when you zoomed in for some reason.

1 minute ago, USAwx said:

bet you 100 dollars the city has wet streets Monday morning with temps 34 degrees

Why all the emotional bait just before the storm ? Lets see how it plays out. One model will be right not the euro.

1 minute ago, Analog1888 said:

First of all, it's he's. Did you not learn how to use an apostrophe in third grade?

He's= he is. Secondly, how does anyone know if he's right? Today is Saturday. Are you a clairvoyant? How do you know what's going to happen on Monday?

That dude been mad all winter . He's in a snow drought.

Error

Just now, Analog1888 said:

It looks lower when you zoomed in for some reason.

The data output for the bottom picture is wrong, the top is correct. When I switched to an overview of NJ it corrected itself

Euro looks great keeps trending west

Just now, Vairel1 said:

Why all the emotion bait just before the storm ? Lets see how it plays out. One model will be right not the euro.

That dude been mad all winter . Hes in a snow drought.

I'm in the same area as he is. He hasn't gotten old enough or mature enough to learn that there are things more important in life than weather and sports, both of which we have zero contriol over.

Just now, TheBomber656 said:

The data output for the bottom picture is wrong, the top is correct. When I switched to an overview of NJ it corrected itself

So low end Euro is 12-16” area wide and still trending higher. Expect a bump at 0z..

EPS better expanded n/w

All of these models have their own personalities. All these blobs and snow holes are different from one to the next but they keep the same blobs and holes from run to run like tattoos or birthmarks .

When the ensembles are wetter than the op its a red flag

Another nod to the GFS

Still playing catch up

Just now, Graupel said:

All of these models have their own personalities. All these blobs and snow holes are different from one to the next but they keep the same blobs and holes from run to run like tattoos or birthmarks .

24 plus for us w 12 hrs of 50 to 55mph gusts

6ft drifts probably

Taking a poll, do I drive down to Staten Island tomorrow or wait until next week for my turn at a snow storm.

1 minute ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

24 plus for us w 12 hrs of 50 to 55mph gusts

6ft drifts probably

Shit I never swapped the genny gas.

18z NBM

Just now, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

When the ensembles are wetter than the op its a red flag

Another nod to the GFS

Still playing catch up

Yes and a lot of people don't realize how ensembles work. With the ECMWF, there are like 52 individual ensembles.

The ensemble mean is an average of all of them. There are almost always going to be a couple that are very low on snowfall- either they are too warm or way east.

That's why ensemble means are usually never really high.
If you see a real high ENS mean, like we have seen all day on the GEFS, that's a huge signal.

Just now, TheBomber656 said:

18z NBM

Even if you use this number as a high end forecast, which is basically my forecast, those are very impressive.

EVERY BIT A SNOWICANE

LIGHTNING TOO

2 minutes ago, StatenWx said:

Taking a poll, do I drive down to Staten Island tomorrow or wait until next week for my turn at a snow storm.

You have to

My friend just left Mt Snow to come home

You will not see this for 10 yrs

2 minutes ago, TheBomber656 said:

18z NBM

Here is the 50th Percentile. Middle ground

2 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

Yes and a lot of people don't realize how ensembles work. With the ECMWF, there are like 52 individual ensembles.

The ensemble mean is an average of all of them. There are almost always going to be a couple that are very low on snowfall- either they are too warm or way east.

That's why ensemble means are usually never really high.
If you see a real high ENS mean, like we have seen all day on the GEFS, that's a huge signal.

Theres a small E cluster pulling the mean down

The floor is now 20.