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Tracking Historic DC to PB BLIZZARD. No posters allowed north of NYC

USAwx
USAwx
in Northeast Weather Discussion

Featured Replies

1 minute ago, TheBomber656 said:

21z is now out. Won't see an average like this again for at least another decade. Insanity webmodeldata?mod=nbm&mt=2026022121&hr=51&map=NJ&gv0=P&mv0=null&mv1=null&mv2=asnowsfc&gs=mslp_thk_pcp&mv5=72&mv8=ctl:nbm_snow,scheme:whitesnowhazwx,metar,county:55&cap=72-Hour%20Snow%20Accumulation&uid=snow_72hr_whitecounty

webmodeldata?mod=nbm&mt=2026022121&hr=51&map=CT&gv0=P&mv0=null&mv1=null&mv2=asnowsfc&gs=mslp_thk_pcp&mv5=72&mv8=ctl:nbm_snow,scheme:whitesnowhazwx,metar,county:55&cap=72-Hour%20Snow%20Accumulation&uid=snow_72hr_whitecounty

50th Percentile

webmodeldata?mod=nbm&mt=2026022121&hr=51&map=NJ&gv0=P&mv0=null&mv1=null&mv2=asnowsfc&gs=mslp_thk_pcp&mv5=72&mv8=ctl:nbm_snow50,scheme:whitesnowhazwx,metar,county:55&cap=72-Hour%20Snow%20Accumulation%20(50th%20Percentile)&uid=snow_72hr_50pc_whitecountywebmodeldata?mod=nbm&mt=2026022121&hr=51&map=CT&gv0=P&mv0=null&mv1=null&mv2=asnowsfc&gs=mslp_thk_pcp&mv5=72&mv8=ctl:nbm_snow50,scheme:whitesnowhazwx,metar,county:55&cap=72-Hour%20Snow%20Accumulation%20(50th%20Percentile)&uid=snow_72hr_50pc_whitecounty

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image.png

Take the NWS forecast as your low end. Then take the NBM forecast as your high end. Then tighten up the range. So for example, if NWS has you at 20 and the NBM has you at 32, go 24-28.

That is a solid forecasting method at this point.

    •
    • Like 3
    Just now, Ag3 said:

    Maybe at that point, but there was a different evolution.

    1978 came way south from a wave that was almost at the north pole initially.

    Here’s the SREF close-up

    IMG_3373.gif

    •
    • Like 3
    24 minutes ago, StatenWx said:

    I saw a storm of similar proportion back in 2018 at cobleskill where we got 4ft in 24 hrs and just back in 22 where I saw 2 2ft storms in 1 year. Only thing making me want to drive down is the fact I missed Boxing Day against my will.

    Just get in the car now and drive down. You will be grateful you did.

    10 minutes ago, Ag3 said:

    February 1978 was a clipper and it joined up with I believe in another storm off of the Carolinas and it became a really strong Miller B and it just boost slowly and actually did a loop around Eastern Long Island if I’m not mistaken. That was an incredible storm with an amazing backlash.

    1 minute ago, Andrew said:

    Just get in the car now and drive down. You will be grateful you did.

    I'd go, but I'd have to stay in a hotel and then I don't know when I could get back, so no.

    26 minutes ago, TheBomber656 said:

    21z is now out. Won't see an average like this again for at least another decade. Insanity webmodeldata?mod=nbm&mt=2026022121&hr=51&map=NJ&gv0=P&mv0=null&mv1=null&mv2=asnowsfc&gs=mslp_thk_pcp&mv5=72&mv8=ctl:nbm_snow,scheme:whitesnowhazwx,metar,county:55&cap=72-Hour%20Snow%20Accumulation&uid=snow_72hr_whitecounty

    webmodeldata?mod=nbm&mt=2026022121&hr=51&map=CT&gv0=P&mv0=null&mv1=null&mv2=asnowsfc&gs=mslp_thk_pcp&mv5=72&mv8=ctl:nbm_snow,scheme:whitesnowhazwx,metar,county:55&cap=72-Hour%20Snow%20Accumulation&uid=snow_72hr_whitecounty

    First time I’ve ever seen a 36” lollipop over my head inside 24hrs. Incredible

    • Like 1
    11 minutes ago, USAwx said:

    image.png

    What the f*** is this?

    30 minutes ago, Ag3 said:

    Not quite like '78. More like February 2013 IMHO.

    2 minutes ago, danstorm said:

    What the f*** is this?

    Shows a lot of snow who the f*** cares.

    • Thanks 1
    • Haha 4
    1 minute ago, danstorm said:

    What the f*** is this?

    Special secret model! SHHHH!

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