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Tracking Historic DC to PB BLIZZARD. No posters allowed north of NYC

USAwx
USAwx
in Northeast Weather Discussion

Featured Replies

6 minutes ago, Graupel said:

Speaking of Ukie, I’d put it in the American western camp

image.png

0z cut back

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  • THE GREAT PB
    THE GREAT PB

    I gave you all this period Snowstorm Coldest 30 days in 25 yrs Snowcover Now a Blizzard And no thanked me

  • Analog1888
    Analog1888

    OK here is my forecast for selected cities: Newark/Metro NE NJ: 24" NYC proper: 24" Bronx/N Manhattan, N Staten Island, 22" near shores Interior NE NJ: 22" Morris/Southern Sussex, Hunterdon, Warren:

  • USAwx
    USAwx

1 minute ago, Metfan88 said:

0z cut back

The snow hole right in the middle is the issue.. time to really just focus on the Meso models from this point .. maybe after Euro run.

Just now, BlizzardBill said:

The snow hole right in the middle is the issue.. time to really just focus on the Meso models from this point .. maybe after Euro run.

It’s fake. It did that to NYC last month

    • Like 2
    13 minutes ago, amugs said:

    Was at a fundraiser party tonight and talking with a weather geek. He said I am calling for 8-12" in NYC and NNJ. We'll lose at least 5-6 hours of snow due to the marginal temp and even overnight ae saty at 31. I said what models are you following? He said Wuro its the premiere model of choice. I said it has been horrendous with this storm.And then proceeded to use the % of snowfall by NWS for 8 inches to base this on. I said we'll Im glad your not making the forecast cause they'd have you strung up to the nearest flagpole come Monday morning.

    He sounds dumb

    •
    • Haha 1
    • Thumbs Up 1
    Just now, Graupel said:

    It’s fake. It did that to NYC last month

    I was just going to say that. Apparently, the UKMET just likes to create these fake snow holes.

    3 minutes ago, Metfan88 said:

    0z cut back

    Its noise. It and the icon are the only non American globals that get 12” snows west well into PA.

    •
    • Like 2
    2 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

    I was just going to say that. Apparently, the UKMET just likes to create these fake snow holes.

    Yeah the update didn’t fix that issue. But it does now arguably have better temps and run to run consistently.

    Just now, Graupel said:

    Yeah the update didn’t fix that issue. But it does now arguably have better temps and run to run consistently.

    It seems like now it is at least a "useable" model, as long as we know its biases.

    •
    • Haha 1
    1 hour ago, BlizzardBill said:

    It models can’t come close to verifying 12 hrs before start time then we shouldn’t bother looking.. that’s what is annoying there is still half models that are extreme solutions and half that are modest events except for coastal areas.

    I consider this the gold standard for precipitation amounts. Take this and run with it:

    HREF_Hernando_Second.jpg

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    • Like 1

    Taken from another board - glad to see AI beef up somewhat. It's not the model that's going to nail banding but you don't want to see it slip east

    pivotal-weather-ecmwf_aifs-qpf_acc-imp-us_ne.gif.0b2f5ab00346b5c1d7b2df9f2240c29a.gif

    Euro better

    sn10_acc-imp.us_ne (18).png

    Euro wagons west and drops a foot in parts of E PA

    image.png

    7 minutes ago, Metfan88 said:

    Euro better

    sn10_acc-imp.us_ne (18).png

    Even a bit better if you posted all of the run.

    Euro shifted west again with the L, will be by gfs by 12z lol

    1 minute ago, TheBomber656 said:

    webmodeldata?mod=ecmwfA5H&mt=2026022200&hr=60&map=CT&gv0=P&mv0=null&mv1=null&mv2=sfsfc&gs=mslp_thk_pcp&mv5=72&mv8=scheme:white10snowhazwx,metar,county:55&uid=frozen1072_whitecountywebmodeldata?mod=ecmwfA5H&mt=2026022200&hr=60&map=NJ&gv0=P&mv0=null&mv1=null&mv2=sfsfc&gs=mslp_thk_pcp&mv5=72&mv8=scheme:white10snowhazwx,metar,county:55&uid=frozen1072_whitecounty

    Kuch

    webmodeldata?mod=ecmwfUED&mt=2026022200&hr=48&map=NJ&gv0=P&mv0=null&mv1=null&mv2=sfsfc&gs=mslp_thk_pcp&mv5=72&mv8=scheme:white10snowhazwx,kuchera,metar,county:55&altmodel=UED&uid=frozenkuchera72_whitecountywebmodeldata?mod=ecmwfUED&mt=2026022200&hr=48&map=CT&gv0=P&mv0=null&mv1=null&mv2=sfsfc&gs=mslp_thk_pcp&mv5=72&mv8=scheme:white10snowhazwx,kuchera,metar,county:55&altmodel=UED&uid=frozenkuchera72_whitecounty

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    • Like 1
    3 minutes ago, Graupel said:

    O3 rap

    image.png

    Time to start paying attention to these mesos

    Western edge often under modeled and where surprises happen

    • Like 1

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