Down to 29 four degrees colder than forecasted

EPS bumps up and west

so if the euro ends up being way off, what are gonna be the things it got wrong?

42 minutes ago, Graupel said:

O3 rap

Nailed Thursday for out here to within an inch

For reference

Upton has now expanded Blizzard Warnings to its entire forecast warning zone

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
200 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

CTZ005>008-NYZ069-070-221900-
/O.CON.KOKX.BZ.W.0001.260222T1800Z-260223T2300Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern
New London-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
200 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6
PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations
  between 14 and 18 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Visibilities may drop below 1/4 mile due to falling and
  blowing snow. Whiteout conditions are expected and will make
  travel treacherous and potentially life-threatening. The strong
  winds and weight of snow on tree limbs may down power lines and
  could cause sporadic power outages. Travel could be very difficult
  to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce
  visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday
  morning and evening commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree
  branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heaviest snow and strongest winds are
  expected Sunday night into Monday.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
200 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

CTZ009>012-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-221900-
/O.CON.KOKX.BZ.W.0001.260222T1800Z-260223T2300Z/
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern
New London-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-
Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Northern
Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
200 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6
PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations
  between 16 and 20 inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Visibilities may drop below 1/4 mile due to falling and
  blowing snow. Whiteout conditions are expected and will make
  travel treacherous and potentially life-threatening. The strong
  winds and weight of snow on tree limbs may down power lines and
  could cause sporadic power outages. Travel could be very difficult
  to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce
  visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday
  morning and evening commutes. Strong winds could cause tree damage.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heaviest snow and strongest winds are
  expected Sunday night into Monday.

Per Upton/Holly

11-15" North and West (Up to 45 MPH Gusts)

14-18" North And East (Up to 50 MPH Gusts)

16-20" South/Coastal (Up to 55 MPH Gusts)

Sounds about right IMO

Intense low-level warm advection will aid the potential for
   lightning discharge in midlevel convection along the middle Atlantic
   coast and southern New England. Forecast soundings suggest the
   majority of this activity will be within heavier snow bands along
   the northwest-north side of the cyclone.

Hrrr drops 25 inches on NYC

Nam shifted those huge bands from NJ to Long Isand which gets into NYC

Band rotates over the area

NAM has 30" here lol. I'll believe it when I see it and it's still snowing after this frame