New Hurricane hunter data goes in again for 0z

21 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

One of these models is about to have an embarrassing fail . Prob gfs but hope it’s the euro tired of the dr no and king nonsense

46 minutes ago, gkrangers said:

GFS is on crack.

I thought you left until December??

GFSDS🤣

21 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

One of these models is about to have an embarrassing fail . Prob gfs but hope it’s the euro tired of the dr no and king nonsense

46 minutes ago, gkrangers said:

GFS is on crack.

I thought you left until December??

GFSDS🤣

KEY MESSAGE 2...
There remains a high amount of uncertainty with the development
and track of a coastal low Sunday into Monday. However, there
has been a clear trend to the NW the last 24-36h in the low
track with ECAIFS, AIGFS, the GEFS, and to a lesser extent the
GEPS. The operational GFS and GDPS (Canadian) the last 2 to 3
runs have a low track that has been close enough to see some
snowfall across the region, but not a major event. Bottom line,
there has been a lot of jumping around of the guidance and this is
likely due to complex interaction between multiple streams/upper
lows embedded within a longwave trough across the western half of
the country. This could still be the case another 24h or so before
we see better consistency amongst all of the guidance.

Given the uncertainty, the forecast has continued to follow the
NBM. NBM probabilities for 6 inches or more are generally less
than 15 percent, highest across LI. Even advisory level snows
get no higher than 20 percent. That being said, the guidance
being all over the place has kept these numbers low. The system
though is very much worth watching because of its potential with
incredible deepening of the low Sunday afternoon and night.
Pressure falls around 24 mb in 12h in the 00Z GFS and GDPS. The
potential for high winds and heavy precipitation is a concern
should a more western track become the consensus.

&&

Win or lose, this event is going down to the wire.

The system
though is very much worth watching because of its potential with
incredible deepening .
Interesting part of the discussion.

I think theres 6 here.

I don't think theres 30.

But there were people calling this a fish and I dont think thats ever been the case

23 minutes ago, amugs said:

I thought you left until December??

GFSDS🤣

Well, maybe I'll stick around for 12z. 😅

4 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

I think theres 6 here.

I don't think theres 30.

But there were people calling this a fish and I dont think thats ever been the case

What about the city & LI? I think eastern LI might do good

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Weak

ICON said what storm

7 minutes ago, Sundog said:

ICON said what storm

It’s also the 6z icon lol it’s pretty funny actually 🤣 hopefully we get some good trends at 12z a lot more data in the models

rgem @ 84 from 6z

7 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

It’s also the 6z icon lol it’s pretty funny actually 🤣 hopefully we get some good trends at 12z a lot more data in the models

There's a reason the Hudson Valley guys aren't posting lol

Those a solutions of a mega snowstorm for all are gone. Now we see how much coastal areas can get.

I think NYC is in a dead zone, where Central Jersey south gets good snow and then loops underneath us and hits eastern LI and parts of SE New England.

We shall see.

This is reverse juno. Everything shows a miss except gfs. Don't believe it. It will lose the storm at 12z

7 minutes ago, USAwx said:

This is reverse juno. Everything shows a miss except gfs. Don't believe it. It will lose the storm at 12z

And how did Juno work out for the euro?

32 minutes ago, Sundog said:

ICON said what

15 minutes ago, USAwx said:

This is reverse juno. Everything shows a miss except gfs. Don't believe it. It will lose the storm at 12z

I have to disagree with this comment the gfs has been fairly consistent with this storm since monday so I highly doubt that it's going to lose anything. It's hasn't been jumping around like it has been from the previous storms. And if it is right? Other model guidance will cave to don't worry about the euro.It'll eventually catch on most likely last minute.

6 minutes ago, let_it_snow said:

I have to disagree with this comment the gfs has been fairly consistent with this storm since monday so I highly doubt that it's going to lose anything. It's hasn't been jumping around like it has been from the previous storms. And if it is right? Other model guidance will cave to don't worry about the euro.It'll eventually catch on most likely last minute.

what's the GFS have support from? That's the question.

Just now, Brian5671 said:

what's the GFS have support from? That's the question.

CMC is more in gfs camp

GEFS

Euro AI is more west compared to its op

Minus the gfs showing a blizzard more models are impactful than not… euro op and icon are the complete misses