Just now, Metfan88 said:

Gefs

WOW, that is a solid west lean!

9 minutes ago, USAwx said:

Fuck them fuck this winter

We don't even get March nor'easters that would make up the deficit anymore unless you live north of Albany

Ukie still not enthused. Same as 12z starts rain 1-3” snow

2 minutes ago, Graupel said:

Ukie still not enthused. Same as 12z starts rain 1-3” snow

Ukie sucks

Just now, Snowlover76 said:

Ukie sucks

Weird precip output

Just now, Metfan88 said:

Weird precip output

Honestly its hard to buy the really deep low scenario. Something will hit but its hard to see it being the way the GFS is.

1 minute ago, Metfan88 said:

Weird precip output

That's a symptom of the UKIE.

Just now, Snowlover76 said:

Honestly its hard to buy the really deep low scenario. Something will hit but its hard to see it being the way the GFS is.

What model does not agree with the GFS on depth of the low? The GGEM is actually deeper.

Just now, Snowlover76 said:

Honestly it’s hard to buy the really deep low scenario. Something will hit but it’s hard to see it being the way the GFS is.

Can’t discount it though, AIFS had it at 18z and icon was quite close to it. CMC’s have it but 200 miles east. I’m blending attm 2-4” 3”-6” For now.

9 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

What model does not agree with the GFS on depth of the low? The GGEM is actually deeper.

A lot of storms de amp as you get closer. It happens a lot.

6 minutes ago, Graupel said:

Can’t discount it though, AIFS had it at 18z and icon was quite close to it. CMC’s have it but 200 miles east. I’m blending attm 2-4” 3”-6” For now.

You've got the best idea right now IMO

JB

"To me, still looks like a DC to BOS special 6-12, locally 18"

May I add blizzard conditions likely to develop in coastal areas Delaware to SE New England

Hope it rains

AIFS very secsy

2 minutes ago, Graupel said:

AIFS very secsy

Hows it look for Monday morning around 6am for JFK? Might tell my buddy to keep an eye out for a wx alert to change flights

Just now, Snowlover76 said:

Hows it look for Monday morning around 6am for JFK? Might tell my buddy to keep an eye out for a wx alert to change flights

Thats probably right in the thick of it.

1 minute ago, Snowlover76 said:

Hows it look for Monday morning around 6am for JFK? Might tell my buddy to keep an eye out for a wx alert to change flights

That’s the midway point.