So your saying NYC is for sure completely out of any snow?

Hopefully we start getting more consistency at 12z

Just now, Brian5671 said:

what's the GFS have support from? That's the question.

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

what's the GFS have support from? That's the question.

My only theory is that the drone drops have made this model more accurate but it's just a theory not saying that it's right. It's just been fairly consistent the whole week showing this blizzard type scenario . You would hope that the Euro would catch on to this. But most likely, it will be the last minute.Euro has done very poorly.This winter so far.

2 minutes ago, Arons said:

So your saying NYC is for sure completely out of any snow?

No one is saying that. But NYC might be in a screw zone, that doesn't mean nothing.

Hell we might all wind up with nothing lol

4 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

CMC is more in gfs camp

GEFS

Euro AI is more west compared to its op

Minus the gfs showing a blizzard more models are impactful than not… euro op and icon are the complete misses

Just so strange to not see the euro on board. Can't remember a SECS or MECS where it wasn't showing it at this range.

Just now, let_it_snow said:

My only theory is that the drone drops have made this model more accurate but it's just a theory not saying that it's right. It's just been fairly consistent the whole week showing this blizzard type scenario . You would hope that the Euro would catch on to this. But most likely, it will be the last minute.Euro has done very poorly.This winter so far.

What's crazy is the EURO AI jumping around like it has.

That model never does that, it's always making miniscule moves from run to run.

This system must be a tough one to handle

2 minutes ago, let_it_snow said:

My only theory is that the drone drops have made this model more accurate but it's just a theory not saying that it's right. It's just been fairly consistent the whole week showing this blizzard type scenario . You would hope that the Euro would catch on to this. But most likely, it will be the last minute.Euro has done very poorly.This winter so far.

Euro was very good on the 12/26-27 event. Wouldn't say it's been awful.

2 hours ago, USAwx said:

Congrats E, SE and NE

8 minutes ago, Arons said:

So your saying

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Euro was very good on the 12/26-27 event.

8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Euro was very good on the 12/26-27 event. Wouldn't say it's

10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Euro was very good on the 12/26-27 event. Wouldn't say it's been awful.

They both had the storm, but the gfs was more accurate euro has not done very well this winter at all. If the euro would have been right, I would have wound it up with more rain gfs was the colder solution and that's what we got still mixed but at the end okay back on topic.

Euro was pretty bad in 2016…

Borrowed from the other board but very interesting

Why the Euro still “wins” — but can mislead

The Euro:

• Excels at 500 mb pattern evolution

• Handles blocking better than most

• Is more conservative with amplification

That means:

• It often looks right early

• It resists dramatic coastal solutions

• It avoids overreaction

But in snowstorm setups:

• That same conservatism can equal early suppression

• It may be “right” synoptically but late on sensible weather

• It often makes small late corrections that have huge snowfall implications

This is why many historic Northeast storms looked “meh” on the Euro at Day 4… until Day 2.

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Borrowed from the other board but very interesting

Why the Euro still “wins” — but can mislead

The Euro:

• Excels at 500 mb pattern evolution

• Handles blocking better than most

• Is more conservative with amplification

That means:

• It often looks right early

• It resists dramatic coastal solutions

• It avoids overreaction

But in snowstorm setups:

• That same conservatism can equal early suppression

• It may be “right” synoptically but late on sensible weather

• It often makes small late corrections that have huge snowfall implications

This is why many historic Northeast storms looked “meh” on the Euro at Day 4… until Day 2.

This looks like it was written by AI lol

84 hr 12z nam is a weak 1006mb low sliding off the Carolina’s lol

The NAM is no where near the GFS. Would just be some light snow from the northern stream piece.

Most of you have a habit of bashing the GFS day in and day out but I noticed an absence of said bashing with this system. I wonder why lol

18 minutes ago, Sundog said:

This looks like it was written by AI lol

It probably was. Some of the laziest mouthbreathers I know use AI to seem smart and always ask it shit for everything

For the Euro lovers

19 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Most of you have a habit of bashing the GFS day in and day out but I noticed an absence of said bashing with this system. I wonder why lol

Either the GFS or the Euro is going to have one hell of a bust here at 4 days out.

Expecting

Just now, Brian5671 said:

Either the GFS or the Euro is going to have one hell of a bust here at 4 days out.

One of them will be right

The 2ft idea is dead

The GFS is just too amped here

I dont believe this is a 0.