GFS is alone compared to its ensemble. Almost certainly overdone for the area.

Im usually the one to hold out hope but I think the gfs folds. The pattern is too messy for a big phase. We have a decaying block but we need the pacific to cooperate and looks like it might not.

It would be another story if we had blocking and a good pacific to slow this flow.

Its really not a good setup TBH.

Josh is gonna be right… the pacific just sux… we’re gonna lose this on.

You can see how the angle of the northern piece piece sux now. Nothing looks better…

7 minutes ago, SnowMiser123 said:

GFS is alone compared to its ensemble. Almost certainly overdone for the area.

Where is this image from?

2 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Where is this image from?

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/meg/gefs_plumes/index.html?stationname=KCLT

what? no one thinks S NJ is getting 30 inches?

Icon still a miss but did bump n/w a bit

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

what? no one thinks S NJ is getting 30 inches?

Haha no, but they have the best shot at something along with eastern LI. My area, I think if I'm lucky, a couple inches, but leaning towards snow showers/period of light snow. I'd love to be totally wrong and the GFS win out. I think we all hope that though, lol

1 minute ago, FrankPizz said:

Haha no, but they have the best shot at something along with eastern LI. My area, I think if I'm lucky, a couple inches, but leaning towards snow showers/period of light snow. I'd love to be totally wrong and the GFS win out. I think we all hope that though, lol

To get some snow showers from a 970 low is criminal...

Like courting a gorgeous woman and getting a peck on the cheek. You'd almost rather she said no from the start.

Just now, danstorm said:

To get some snow showers from a 970 low is criminal...

Like courting a gorgeous woman and getting a peck on the cheek. You'd almost rather she said no from the start.

Yup give me accumulating decent snow or sunny if we’re not getting anything decent let it hit Bermuda

2 minutes ago, danstorm said:

To get some snow showers from a 970 low is criminal...

Like courting a gorgeous woman and getting a peck on the cheek. You'd almost rather she said no from the start.

Haha yeah. After being burned so much the past decade, I don't buy into anything until within 3 days. I admit it was exciting to see those huge outputs, but them being 150 hours out didn't really get the bloodflow working, haha

Also, maybe being 47, I've finally matured a little and don't let these things bother me as much anymore.

Icon eps jumped west still ots but rather see them come west than go east

This reminds me of the 2/1 event-models played with us a few times before sending it south to NC

14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

what? no one thinks S NJ is getting 30 inches?

100

Just now, Brian5671 said:

This reminds me of the 2/1 event-models played with us a few times before sending it south to NC

I feel like that event was over a little quicker. This one still has a (little) bit of hope.

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

Icon eps jumped west still ots but rather see them come west than go east

The GFS is just a really bad model

I just dont get where all the $ went on developing that thing

Just now, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

100

That CMC spitting out 73" yesterday was insane. That would break the internet if it happened

Just now, Brian5671 said:

This reminds me of the 2/1 event-models played with us a few times before sending it south to NC

Agreed. If one loops through the h7 RH images, you will notice that the confluence over New England is real (often pushing south at the last moment) and is keeping systems SE of the area. It’s the reason that N New England normally gets most of its snow in December and early January.