1 minute ago, BlizzardBill said:

Will feel Better if NAM and GFS still look the same come morning.. if they lose it then time to get nervous.. u don’t go showing 2 feet and then just suddenly back down.

It can easily happen. Euro did exactly that with Juno. I know that was many years ago at this point but there are other examples of that type of backdown over the years by both the GFS and the NAM.

Hopeful the Euro is just not correct this time.

Euro h5 was a mess very early in the run. It’s an outlier.

Just now, Castellanus said:

Euro h5 was a mess very early in the run. It’s an outlier.

Maybe but it is perfectly plausible that the phasing will not be the ideal situation. It is a complex process and behind it all is a very hostile Pacific ocean contributing to the messiness you describe.

Hopefully it is incorrect.

GFS has been almost a carbon copy for 3 days straight now and NAM is lockstep

With it .. if you see any major changes (East) tomorrow then it’s time to worry.

9 minutes ago, dbc said:

Maybe but it is perfectly plausible that the phasing will not be the ideal situation. It is a complex process and behind it all is a very hostile Pacific ocean contributing to the messiness you describe.

Hopefully it is incorrect.

Its a big outlier

6 minutes ago, dbc said:

Maybe but it is perfectly plausible that the phasing will not be the ideal situation. It is a complex process and behind it all is a very hostile Pacific ocean contributing to the messiness you describe.

Hopefully it is incorrect.

I strongly argue against it. it’s all alone. Confluence early on was stronger despite higher ridge. Phase over the Midwest was weak despite energy pouring in. It s also going to have a major upgrade soon. Hasn’t been what it once was.

Let the euro chew on this.

Ukie ensembles

SERFS

ARE STELLAR

2 minutes ago, Graupel said:

I strongly argue against it. it’s all alone. Confluence early on was stronger despite higher ridge. Phase over the Midwest was weak despite energy pouring in. It s also going to have a major upgrade soon. Hasn’t been what it once was.

The garbage pushing into the Canada coast in the Pacific was a tad east and pressed on the setup a bit despite a slightly further west ridge axis at 0z. It is messing with the phasing of our storm upstream. As mentioned it is an outlier and we just have to hope the snowier models have a better handle

EPS trended in the wrong direction.

Just now, Castellanus said:

EPS trended in the wrong direction.

Not surprised considering the op.

Just need to hope both are wrong

9 minutes ago, Castellanus said:

EPS trended in the wrong direction.

Solid westward lean though

The OOzgfs gets captured by the upper level low, which draws it in closer to the coast an stalls out. Euro 00z isnt a full capture, but bombs out more est i think it's an era an u see a full capture, just like the gfs by 6z this morning.. or is there more to this that im missing. Sorry, just learning off all you guys. Hopefully you don't mind my take on this.

14 minutes ago, Castellanus said:

EPS trended in the wrong direction.

Usually follows the op

Upton - “NAM and SREF have both trended toward a heavier snowfall scenario as well, which has been a good signal in past heavy snowfall events.”

Gfs and Nam are outliers being too strong. I can see them downgrade a bit.

FWIW we had a storm out here last winter where the GFS NAM CMC and i think UKIE were all on board for a big storm. Euro had a big storm but had dry air up here eating down totals. Day of the event GFS and Co still had 12+ while the euro still had basically nothing.

We ended up with less than an inch. I know different storm different regions but its just something to keep in mind.

That storm broke me last winter. This hobby hasn't been the same for me since then.

Just now, Snowlover76 said:

FWIW we had a storm out here last winter where the GFS NAM CMC and i think UKIE were all on board for a big storm. Euro had a big storm but had dry air up here eating down totals. Day of the event GFS and Co still had 12+ while the euro still had basically nothing.

We ended up with less than an inch. I know different storm different regions but its just something to keep in mind.

That storm broke me last winter. This hobby hasn't been the same for me since then.

And we've had storms where the Euro was totally wrong too.

Juno was NAM and Euro vs the world. That time, the Euro had the NAM on its side. What does it have now? In general, if you want to be a successful forecaster, you don't go with the outlier.

The outlier can be right one or two out of a hundred times, but it's a lot safer to ignore (or only lightly weight the outlier) than it is to go with it and crash and burn.

What a great snowfall forecast range you can get 2" or 16". You might need a broom or a snow blower. Good luck.