Still snowing

Just now, jsantabanyc said:

@dbc do you know how much snow we had already this season ?

@jsantabanyc Go with Newark's seasonal totals thus far. Last I checked it seemed in line with our area. Maybe add 2 inches since we had 14 inch measurements around the area in the January storm which actually seemed very accurate based on what the aftermath looked like to me.

Ukie

Ukie!!

5 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Still snowing

Absurd has 6-12 all the way up to me.

What are the chances banding set up northwest of the city where areas weren’t supposed to get that much jackpot? We e seen This before

12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

sharp NW cutoff that's where the biggest bust potential lies

I don’t think so

700 mb inflow looks healthy- if anything, I think elevations to my NW (West Milford area) may get more with colder temps and orographic assistance.

Barring the convection chasing scenario (a 20% probability that would still get double digits to NYC), this is a 10-20” storm for the OKX metro

4 minutes ago, dbc said:

@jsantabanyc Go with Newark's seasonal totals thus far. Last I checked it seemed in line with our area. Maybe add 2 inches since we had 14 inch measurements around the area in the January storm which actually seemed very accurate based on what the aftermath looked like to me.

What is Newark total ?

Just now, danstorm said:

I don’t think so

700 mb inflow looks healthy- if anything, I think elevations to my NW (West Milford area) may get more with colder temps and orographic assistance.

Barring the convection chasing scenario (a 20% probability that would still get double digits to NYC), this is a 10-20” storm for the OKX metro

Milford winds in all the big ones

3 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Ukie!!

If that snowhole happens im burning down the neighbors house. 😆 I dont think it will, and love that the overall look is more robust

Really shouldn't use Kuchera for this

3 minutes ago, FrankPizz said:

If that snowhole happens im burning down the neighbors house. 😆 I dont think it will, and love that the overall look is more robust

It had that same type of snow hole over NYC that never materialized.

Gefs

2 minutes ago, Snowlover76 said:

Really shouldn't use Kuchera for this

Actually, most of the Kucheras are showing less than 10:1. But I like to use 10:1 every time, because I can do my own calculations.

Relatively wet snow IMBY, a few miles from the water is about 8-1

Kuchera can show where ratios are <10:1 if surface temps are above freezing while snow is falling, so helpful from that perspective.

7 minutes ago, jsantabanyc said:

What is Newark total ?

@jsantabanyc

I last saw it at 15.1 but they only got 10 inches in the January storm. We legit got 12-14 and maybe a little more from lighter snows that areas south of us wouldn't have got. Maybe like .9 more.

I think we are probably a bit better than that Newark number. Maybe 18 to 20 thus far. If you want to be more conservative go with the 18, hope for 12 at worst with this next storm which then gets us just above normal for winter by Monday night/Tuesday.

Just now, dbc said:

@jsantabanyc

I last saw it at 15.1 but they only got 10 inches in the January storm. We legit got 12-14 and maybe a little more from lighter snows that areas south of us wouldn't have got. Maybe like .9 more.

I think we are probably a bit better than that Newark number. Maybe 18 to 20 thus far. If you want to be more conservative go with the 18, hope for 12 at worst with this next storm which then gets us just above normal for winter by Monday night/Tuesday.

Newark had 11.7 in that January storm.

1 minute ago, dbc said:

@jsantabanyc

I last saw it at 15.1 but they only got 10 inches in the January storm. We legit got 12-14 and maybe a little more from lighter snows that areas south of us wouldn't have got. Maybe like .9 more.

I think we are probably a bit better than that Newark number. Maybe 18 to 20 thus far. If you want to be more conservative go with the 18, hope for 12 at worst with this next storm which then gets us just above normal for winter by Monday night/Tuesday.

EWR definitely had 12 in Jan storm