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Tracking Historic DC to PB BLIZZARD Part Deux- Last minute model mayhem, observations, and weenie hallucinations

USAwx
USAwx
in Northeast Weather Discussion
goldalex
Message added by goldalex,

COD Radar for Tracking:
KDIX: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=DIX-N0B-0-24-100-usa-rad

OKX: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=OKX-N0B-0-24-100-usa-rad

NWS Radar:

OKX LOOP: https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/KOKX_loop.gif

KDIX LOOP: https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/KDIX_loop.gif

HOW MUCH FOR PHILLY and WOW ag3 still posts here?

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  • danstorm
    danstorm

    I will never not be jittery until heavy snow is falling on my yard

  • danstorm
    danstorm

    Oh my god stop with the negativity we don’t live in Allentown

  • Frank_Wx
    Frank_Wx

    The SLP is jumping around all the over the place in the first 5 frames of the GFS. Does not look right at all.

The SLP is jumping around all the over the place in the first 5 frames of the GFS. Does not look right at all.

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 5

    snow mixing in now...winds picking up...

    • Author
    Just now, Frank_Wx said:

    The SLP is jumping around all the over the place in the first 5 frames of the GFS. Does not look right at all.

    you look JUST fine.

    •
    • Thanks 1
    • Haha 1

    Off to the supermarket to pick up stuff

    Should be fun

    Steady white rain now no mix of drizzle anymore

    • Author

    So far all the 15z models look robust. they are also all CONVECTION allowing models. We may be seeing convection issues with the low placement and/or CF with the precip outputs

    RRFSA is improving every run now

    •
    • Like 3
    • Thanks 1

    A tick W and juicer. Larent heat release from Thundersleet yesterday in the S. Bodes well for us.

    HBxDokVWAAATSUA.jpeg

    HBxDokrWcAAGJEY.jpeg

    •
    • Like 4
    1 minute ago, USAwx said:

    So far all the 15z models look robust. they are also all CONVECTION allowing models. We may be seeing convection issues with the low placement and/or CF with the precip outputs

    RRFSA is improving every run now

    Was thinking the same

    •
    • Like 3
    • Thanks 1
    12 minutes ago, jsantabanyc said:

    Omg 😳 did the gfs play us

    Are you getting a snowstorm?

    Is the answer yes?

    Then the GFS wiped the floor with every other model out there.

    • Like 1
    • Snowman 1
    • Author

    If the UKIE gets the big band inland, we should be feeling better about the other models

    that model can't ever show big precip

    OBS: Snow picking up. Flake size and amounts. @Analog1888 you were right, there was only a 30 minute break

    •
    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1
    3 minutes ago, USAwx said:

    So far all the 15z models look robust. they are also all CONVECTION allowing models. We may be seeing convection issues with the low placement and/or CF with the precip outputs

    RRFSA is improving every run now

    I was also thinking the same thing. The evolution of a storm like this is just so complex that global models are not going to handle every detail well.

    There will be areas that get convection, and get into 2-4"/hr rates and get tons of snow. There will be areas that suck subsidence at the same time and get 0.2'/hr.

    Models just aren't capable of resolving every minute detail, which is why, at this stage of the game, I prefer radar and obs,

    And right now, IMO, radar and obs look pretty good.

    •
    • Like 2

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