15 minutes ago, FrankPizz said:

I like the 6" for the scale better. I would think if the % is high, like 90% for 6", then more than 6 is very possible

this

Scaling the threat with the GFS AT 6Z. This assumes GFS has a general idea on the pattern. Not sure.

ideally this scale should be used on gfs, cmc, euro on consistent intervals and blended.

Here it is at126 hours with the storm 156-174 on the gfs. I like scaling the setup BEFORE the storm.

NAO - Not surprisingly, this has improved in the last days. We now have a closed off block over Greenland although not a powerhouse, it's really helping, and it retrogrades west which really helps with the phasing. Bumping this to a 5.

PNA - Still good but you can see the pac wave train crashing in. Bringing this down from 4 to 3.5.

EPO - Not much here, but PNA is extending pretty far now. Bringing this down to 3.

Cold -Once the front comes through, it's deep cold. Maxing this out here. 8.

50/50 - Our most important feature East Coast Snow. One low just moved out but you have low heights over this area. It's not amazing, but it's def. good enough to prevent a cutter. I'll go 10 here.

Wild Card - Seems like it wants to try to snow this winter at least, so let's give an extra 1.5 to the mix, and MLK weekend, as history has shown us, is historically pretty good time to snow

31/50 so bumping UP now to 62% chance of 6 inches or more NYC

This is EASILY 25:1 ratios