15 minutes ago, FrankPizz said:

I like the 6" for the scale better. I would think if the % is high, like 90% for 6", then more than 6 is very possible

this

Scaling the threat with the GFS AT 6Z. This assumes GFS has a general idea on the pattern. Not sure.

ideally this scale should be used on gfs, cmc, euro on consistent intervals and blended.

Here it is at126 hours with the storm 156-174 on the gfs. I like scaling the setup BEFORE the storm.

NAO - Not surprisingly, this has improved in the last days. We now have a closed off block over Greenland although not a powerhouse, it's really helping, and it retrogrades west which really helps with the phasing. Bumping this to a 5.

PNA - Still good but you can see the pac wave train crashing in. Bringing this down from 4 to 3.5.

EPO - Not much here, but PNA is extending pretty far now. Bringing this down to 3.

Cold -Once the front comes through, it's deep cold. Maxing this out here. 8.

50/50 - Our most important feature East Coast Snow. One low just moved out but you have low heights over this area. It's not amazing, but it's def. good enough to prevent a cutter. I'll go 10 here.

Wild Card - Seems like it wants to try to snow this winter at least, so let's give an extra 1.5 to the mix, and MLK weekend, as history has shown us, is historically pretty good time to snow

31/50 so bumping UP now to 62% chance of 6 inches or more NYC

This is EASILY 25:1 ratios

I'll be scoring, and blending, the 12z UKIE, CMC, and GFS today

regular versions only

3 hours ago, USAwx said:

I'll be scoring, and blending, the 12z UKIE, CMC, and GFS today

regular versions only

Starting at 12Z?

Just now, Analog1888 said:

Starting at 12Z?

And why not the ECMWF instead of the UKIE?

31 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

And why not the ECMWF instead of the UKIE?

Euro too sorry

the big 4

1 minute ago, USAwx said:

Euro too sorry

the big 4

Ok great

Scaling out the ICON here, it's through the roof at 120 hours

1) NAO - GREAT block before the storm 9

2)  PNA 3  There is good amplification albeit more off shore than I want

3)  EPO 9 It is pretty much ideal

4)  Cold Source  8  brrrrr

5)  50/50 16 it is perfect   

6)  Wild Card 1  points - Jan 25 is a special date

92 percent chance of 6 inches or more NYC

2 hours ago, USAwx said:

Scaling out the ICON here, it's through the roof at 120 hours

1) NAO - GREAT block before the storm 9

2)  PNA 3  There is good amplification albeit more off shore than I want

3)  EPO 9 It is pretty much ideal

4)  Cold Source  8  brrrrr

5)  50/50 16 it is perfect   

6)  Wild Card 1  points - Jan 25 is a special date

92 percent chance of 6 inches or more NYC

euro, ukie, cmc all scaling above 90 percent for 6 inches or more nyc

Scoring the GEFS at 120 hours (pre-cursor to the storm)

1)  NAO 9

2)  PNA 2

3)  EPO 10

4)  Cold Source  8 

5)  50/50 16

6)  Wild Card 0  points 

45/50

90 PERCENT chance 6 inches or more NYC

On 1/20/2026 at 2:54 PM, USAwx said:

Scoring the GEFS at 120 hours (pre-cursor to the storm)

1)  NAO 9

2)  PNA 2

3)  EPO 10

4)  Cold Source  8 

5)  50/50 16

6)  Wild Card 0  points 

45/50

90 PERCENT chance 6 inches or more NYC

ahem

Continued good agreement among the deterministic and AI models
regarding a winter storm impacting the area Sunday into Monday.
Longwave pattern continues the trend of greater phasing between
northern and southern stream energy, helping to steer low
pressure closer to us compared to the depictions of 24+ hours
ago. 12z Weds suite consensus would have a low pressure center
passing near or just south of the 40N/70W benchmark Sunday
night. An inverted trough connected to a weaker low center to
our northwest may then shift through on Monday, which could
result in higher chances of lingering snow than currently in the
forecast for Monday.

It`s still too early for any specifics on amounts as changes in
the upper pattern and resulting storm track will impact
amounts, and with the potential start time of the event still 4
days away, there`s still plenty of time for trends to be
continued or disrupted. Changes in the potential liquid
equivalent amounts, warm air intrusion from a closer storm
approach, and the placement of a potential coupled jet structure
and other sources of enhanced lift, are among factors will
influence snowfall amounts. Something which at least is more
certain are cold temperatures (teens to mid 20s) through the
event, and this is something that would contribute to higher
snow to liquid equivalent ratios. The latest NBM probability for
greater than 6 inches of snow has now increased to 80-90
percent across the entire forecast area. The potential exists
for the snow to be drier and powdery based on the arctic air
mass in place, but these details will be worked out as the event
draws closer.

The bottom line here is that an impactful winter storm is
increasingly likely Sunday into Monday. The storm track, timing,
and snow amount details will be in better focus over the next
few days.

On 1/20/2026 at 1:12 PM, USAwx said:

euro, ukie, cmc all scaling above 90 percent for 6 inches or more nyc

On 1/20/2026 at 2:54 PM, USAwx said:

Scoring the GEFS at 120 hours (pre-cursor to the storm)

1)  NAO 9

2)  PNA 2

3)  EPO 10

4)  Cold Source  8 

5)  50/50 16

6)  Wild Card 0  points 

45/50

90 PERCENT chance 6 inches or more NYC

New York City Central Park had 7.2 inches as of 1 PM on January 25, 2026.

Excellent call Josh. Finally you get to use your system and you had an upper deck home run your first time.

14 minutes ago, Andrew said:

New York City Central Park had 7.2 inches as of 1 PM on January 25, 2026.

Excellent call Josh. Finally you get to use your system and you had an upper deck home run your first time.

they got 0.24" more by 2pm...should be 10" before the sleet came...