is la nina finally losing its grip...

just when I thought La nina was out its pulling me back in...

noaa just updated its enso page...each year has been updated also...1974-75 is no longer a la nina but neutral neg...many other years too...

Climate Prediction Center - Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI)

the latest mei number for Dec/Jan was -0.8...other years with a -0.8 for that period were,

1995-96...

2000-01...

2017-18...

On 2/9/2026 at 9:49 AM, uncle w said:

noaa just updated its enso page...each year has been updated also...1974-75 is no longer a la nina but neutral neg...many other years too...

Climate Prediction Center - Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI)

That was a very underrated horrible winter, when people talk about the worst winter is, I don’t know why they forget that one. With the exception of that couple of week period in February where we got snow, including the 8 inch Presidents’ Day storm., the whole winter as a hole really was crappy. I believe New York City had 7 days with the maximum 32 or below. December had one of the highest minimum temps before DEC 2015.

1 hour ago, Andrew said:

That was a very underrated horrible winter, when people talk about the worst winter is, I don’t know why they forget that one. With the exception of that couple of week period in February where we got snow, including the 8 inch Presidents’ Day storm., the whole winter as a hole really was crappy. I believe New York City had 7 days with the maximum 32 or below. December had one of the highest minimum temps before DEC 2015.

I wasn't nearly alive yet, so I'll just tell you we have had 1997-98, 2001-02, 2011-12, 2019-20, 2022-23, and 2023-24, that were all probably worse.

1988-89 might go in there too, as well as 1991-92, but I wasn't old enough to remember them.

1 hour ago, Analog1888 said:

I wasn't nearly alive yet, so I'll just tell you we have had 1997-98, 2001-02, 2011-12, 2019-20, 2022-23, and 2023-24, that were all probably worse.

1988-89 might go in there too, as well as 1991-92, but I wasn't old enough to remember them.

My definition of a bad winter is not necessarily low snowfall. If it’s going to be dry with not much snow, I would rather it be mild. 1974-75 wasn’t a blow torch. It was a little bit warmer than normal but it just sucked. It was like the 2007-2008 winter, that one wasn’t a blow torch either, but there was a little snowfall, but there weren’t any really warm days.

If it’s not going to snow, I’d rather it be warm. It’s like our current situation here as much as I like the snowpack the fact that it looks more and more like we are going to have one of the driest if not the driest Feb and we had wasted cold.

You took a walk yesterday around one of the lakes by you and I’m sure it was much better doing it when it was 75° then it would’ve been if it was -22 with the windchill of -60.

7 minutes ago, Andrew said:

My definition of a bad winter is not necessarily low snowfall. If it’s going to be dry with not much snow, I would rather it be mild. 1974-75 wasn’t a blow torch. It was a little bit warmer than normal but it just sucked. It was like the 2007-2008 winter, that one wasn’t a blow torch either, but there was a little snowfall, but there weren’t any really warm days.

If it’s not going to snow, I’d rather it be warm. It’s like our current situation here as much as I like the snowpack the fact that it looks more and more like we are going to have one of the driest if not the driest Feb and we had wasted cold.

You took a walk yesterday around one of the lakes by you and I’m sure it was much better doing it when it was 75° then it would’ve been if it was -22 with the windchill of -60.

If there is snow on the ground, then I like for it to stay cold. But if there isn't even any snow on the ground, then there's no point.

I don't understand Frank's obsession, for example, with it being below zero.

You can't even do anything outside unless you wear so much that it's hard to move.

el nino coming next year...will it be too strong again?...

it looks like we are neutral now...

23rd is real

latest recalculated oni numbers have 2025-26 DJF number at -0.9...other years with -0.9 for the DJF tri monthly oni are, 2008-09...2005-06...1995-96...

Christ almighty. Winter is absolutely cooked

Winter is absolutely cooked IMO. Especially east of the Rockies. Can't even use an analog for this year. Uncharted territory

Seasonal guidance looks ok actually.

10 hours ago, Snowlover76 said:

Christ almighty. Winter is absolutely cooked

I want to see this chart with the 1961-1990 climatology being used so I can see a direct comparison with 98 Super Nino.

This Nino may very well peak early. I am not sold that winter is horrible. Plus for Nebraska people, 80% of strong Ninos have above normal snowfall.

32 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

This Nino may very well peak early. I am not sold that winter is horrible. Plus for Nebraska people, 80% of strong Ninos have above normal snowfall.

We've never had a Nino this strong

3 minutes ago, Snowlover76 said:

We've never had a Nino this strong

So, in some theory that should be even better here, especially if you look at what 1997-98 did here.

See, your posts never have any scientific reasoning in them whatsoever.

All you do is try to find the worst possible outcome. You're like the opposite of Bastardi minus the scientific reasoning he uses.

If it were a Nina, you'd be complaining about another Nina, again with no science whatsoever.

Latest enso numbers...