11 minutes ago, Snowlover76 said:

Think super Nino has to be your base case at this point.

Just now, SnowMiser123 said:

Think super Nino has to be your base case at this point.

Crazy we are getting another super Nino right after one in 23.

Some unseasonably cold temperatures through mid-week including a hard freeze tomorrow night into Wednesday morning. Temperatures will remain in the upper 40's which is a solid 10 degrees below normal for the date. We slowly modify to slightly above normal temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 60's by the weekend. Looking ahead to next week we should see a big warmup well into the 70's before another cool down back to below normal temperatures by late next week. Overall, a dry pattern throughout the period.

10 hours ago, SnowMiser123 said:

Think super Nino has to be your base case at this point.

How do they measure the Nino strength when taking into account the overall warmer SSTs that are basically found planet wide now?

Is it just the anomaly compared to surrounding waters or what?

oni numbers have changed over the years...I guess it was reevaluated?....when I first started doing posts on winters with certain oni numbers it has changed two times since I've been posting...1958 got stronger...2024 got weaker...the strongest oni el ninos have changed...this is the current strongest el nino's...

year..................oni..........tri monthly peak

1982-83..........2.5..........DJF

2015-16..........2.4..........NDJ

1997-98..........2.4..........OND

1991-92..........2.3..........OND

1972-73..........2.3..........NDJ

1957-58..........2.0..........DJF

1965-66..........2.0..........OND

1986-87..........1.6..........DJF

2009-10..........1.6..........NDJ

2002-03..........1.5..........OND

2023-24..........1.5..........NDJ

1963-64..........1.3..........NDJ

1968-69..........1.2..........DJF

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

How do they measure the Nino strength when taking into account the overall warmer SSTs that are basically found planet wide now?

Is it just the anomaly compared to surrounding waters or what?

This is from the CPC RONI page - the key is they subtract the average Tropics SST departure from the calculated ONI value to obtain RONI, since the warming trend was contaminating ONI values by inflating El Nino ONI & deflating La Nina ONI. 2023-2024 is only an upper end moderate/low end strong event now on RONI, since the warming trend inflated those ONI numbers.

Warm (red) and cold (blue) periods based on a threshold of +/- 0.5°C for the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), using the 1991–2020 base period [3 month running mean of ERSST.v5 SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region (5°N–5°S, 120°–170°W) with average tropical mean (20°N–20°S) SST anomalies subtracted. The difference is then adjusted so the variance equals the original Niño 3.4 index]. For historical purposes, periods of below and above normal SSTs are colored in blue and red when the threshold is met for a minimum of five (5) consecutive overlapping seasons. The RONI is one measure of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, and other indices can confirm whether features consistent with a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon accompanied these periods.

Wednesday will be a good day for wall to wall sunshine.

Moderate snow, band of heavy snow off to the west looks to move thru in a hour or so.

Coating of snow and sleet this morning.

Sun is strong, my face turned slightly pink despite the cool temps and wind making you think there's no danger.

23 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Sun is strong, my face turned slightly pink despite the cool temps and wind making you think there's no danger.

yep-dangerous time of year for sunburn...some actually think it's the temperature that makes one susceptible. LOL. It could be -30 today and you'd burn

21 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

yep-dangerous time of year for sunburn...some actually think it's the temperature that makes one susceptible. LOL. It could be -30 today and you'd burn

I have only had sunburn once in my entire life.

25 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

yep-dangerous time of year for sunburn...some actually think it's the temperature that makes one susceptible. LOL. It could be -30 today and you'd burn

It's been that way for a couple of weeks now. Late march you need a hat unless your bald head wants a sunburn. Hat season until mid October for me when outside on sunny days for long periods.

1 minute ago, uofmiami said:

It's been that way for a couple of weeks now. Late march you need a hat unless your bald head wants a sunburn. Hat season until mid October for me when outside on sunny days for long periods.

I actually have more hair (on my head) than I want. I was willing to donate some, but they told me it doesn't work like that.

9 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

I actually have more hair (on my head) than I want. I was willing to donate some, but they told me it doesn't work like that.

The hair on my head went the opposite way, early 20s it left me. Save on hair cuts & hair products though

4 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

The hair on my head went the opposite way, early 20s it left me. Save on hair cuts & hair products though

Yeah, you save on hair care products and don't have to brush your hair in the morning, whereas if I don't cut my hair every 3 weeks, I look like the wolfman.

40 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

The hair on my head went the opposite way, early 20s it left me. Save on hair cuts & hair products though

I've been shaving my head since the early 1990's...I used to be called Saint Anthony and donut head...it was better than the toilet seat look but shaved is better...

Actually have more hair on my hands 😁