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Balance of January and all of February with a Hint of March Storm Tracking Thread

USAwx
USAwx
in Northeast Weather Discussion

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Just now, uncle w said:

I used to think early heat in the spring means a cold winter next year...it does happen sometimes...1976, 2002 and 2009 come to mind...

I guess we will see. Many already writing off winter, but I can't do that until next February, haha.

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  • USAwx
    USAwx

    .

  • THE GREAT PB
    THE GREAT PB

    And your friend P. B. called Jan 15 - Feb 15 from early January. Not too shabby. Next period Feb 20 - March 10. Going to run this winter BN wire to wire November - March. Just crazy

  • Metfan88
    Metfan88

    Wife in labor

4 minutes ago, FrankPizz said:

I guess we will see. Many already writing off winter, but I can't do that until next February, haha.

what is the writing off next winter comes from?...a super el nino that might not happen...just silly...

    •
    • Like 3
    11 minutes ago, uncle w said:

    what is the writing off next winter comes from?...a super el nino that might not happen...just silly...

    The odds of it not happening though are pretty small

    April years with at least two days with a minimum 32 or lower since 1970......

    2026...2

    2018...2

    2016...3

    2007...4

    2004...3

    2003...3

    2002...3

    1997...3

    1995...3

    1985...2

    1982...5

    1977...3

    1976...2

    1975...6

    1974...2

    1972...4

    ......................

    90 degree since 1869...

    2023...2

    2010...1

    2009...2

    2002...3

    1991...1

    1990...2

    1977...1

    1976...3

    1962...1

    1942...1

    1927...1

    1915...2

    1896...1

    1 minute ago, Sundog said:

    The odds of it not happening though are pretty small

    maybe but it also could be moderate...

    image.png

    •
    • Like 1
    1 hour ago, uncle w said:

    maybe but it also could be moderate...

    image.png

    I remember you had a chart for Nino, there was a threshold where we had good winters...,maybe like 0.9-1.4...I can't remember

    15 minutes ago, FrankPizz said:

    I remember you had a chart for Nino, there was a threshold where we had good winters...,maybe like 0.9-1.4...I can't remember

    oni numbers have changed over the years...I guess it was reevaluated?....when I first started doing posts on winters with certain oni numbers it has changed two times since I've been posting...1958 got stronger...2024 got weaker...the strongest oni el ninos have changed...this is the current strongest el nino's...

    year..................oni..........tri monthly peak...snowfall big snow...

    1982-83..........2.5..........DJF.....27.2"...17.6"...

    2015-16..........2.4..........NDJ....32.8"...27.5"...

    1997-98..........2.4..........OND...5.5".......5.0"...

    1991-92..........2.3..........OND...12.8".....6.2"...

    1972-73..........2.3..........NDJ.......2.8".....1.8"...

    1957-58..........2.0..........DJF......44.7"...11.8"...

    1965-66..........2.0..........OND...21.4".....6.8"...

    1986-87..........1.6..........DJF......23.1".....8.1"...

    2009-10..........1.6..........NDJ....51.4"...20.9"...

    2002-03..........1.5..........OND...49.3"...19.8"...

    2023-24..........1.5..........NDJ.......7.4".....3.1"...11" by me...

    1963-64..........1.3..........NDJ.....44.7"...12.5"...

    1968-69..........1.2..........DJF......30.2"...15.3"...


    Cooler weather coming ? I hate the heat .

    ao.gefs.sprd2.png

    nao.gefs.sprd2.png

    Even a low end strong El Nino might be OK, depending on the orientation.

    1 hour ago, uncle w said:

    oni numbers have changed over the years...I guess it was reevaluated?....when I first started doing posts on winters with certain oni numbers it has changed two times since I've been posting...1958 got stronger...2024 got weaker...the strongest oni el ninos have changed...this is the current strongest el nino's...

    year..................oni..........tri monthly peak...snowfall big snow...

    1982-83..........2.5..........DJF.....27.2"...17.6"...

    2015-16..........2.4..........NDJ....32.8"...27.5"...

    1997-98..........2.4..........OND...5.5".......5.0"...

    1991-92..........2.3..........OND...12.8".....6.2"...

    1972-73..........2.3..........NDJ.......2.8".....1.8"...

    1957-58..........2.0..........DJF......44.7"...11.8"...

    1965-66..........2.0..........OND...21.4".....6.8"...

    1986-87..........1.6..........DJF......23.1".....8.1"...

    2009-10..........1.6..........NDJ....51.4"...20.9"...

    2002-03..........1.5..........OND...49.3"...19.8"...

    2023-24..........1.5..........NDJ.......7.4".....3.1"...11" by me...

    1963-64..........1.3..........NDJ.....44.7"...12.5"...

    1968-69..........1.2..........DJF......30.2"...15.3"...


    A few clunkers, but many arent bad at all

    42 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

    Even a low end strong El Nino might be OK, depending on the orientation.

    If it’s mainly east based then most likely the first half will be mild, but if it’s Modeki, that will end up being much better for us.

    1 hour ago, Analog1888 said:

    Even a low end strong El Nino might be OK, depending on the orientation.

    Gonna be a super nino

    1 hour ago, FrankPizz said:

    A few clunkers, but many arent bad at all

    weaker isn't that great...

    year...DJF oni...peak oni...snowfall...big snow...

    1951-52...0.6....1.0 SON.......19.7"..........5.5"...

    1952-53...0.5....0.8 JFM.........15.1"..........4.2"...

    1953-54...1.0....1.0 DJF..........15.8"..........9.6"...

    1969-70...0.5....0.8 SON........25.6"..........6.8"...

    1976-77...1.0....1.1 NDJ.........24.5"..........5.2"...

    1977-78...0.9....1.1 NDJ.........50.7"........17.6"...

    1979-80...0.6....0.7 NDJ.........12.8"..........4.6"...

    1987-88...0.7....1.6 JAS..........19.1"..........5.8"...

    1992-93...0.5....1.0 MAM......24.5"........10.3"...

    2004-05...0.6....0.9 ASO........41.0".........13.8"...

    2018-19...0.6....0.8 OND.......20.5"..........6.4"...

    •
    • Like 1
    32 minutes ago, Snowlover76 said:

    Gonna be a super nino

    Just because you're saying it, I bet we don't even get to moderate.

    strongest el nino's using the MEI method...new data 1979 to present...old data 1868 to 1979...

    year..............MEI DJ......max MEI/period......snowfall...big snow...

    1982-83..........2.5....................2.9 AM....................27.2"..........17.6"...

    1997-98..........2.3....................2.6 MA......................5.5".............5.0"...

    1972-73..........2.0....................2.2 JA.........................2.8".............1.8"...

    2015-16..........1.9....................2.2 SO.....................32.8"...........27.5"...

    1877-78..........1.9....................2.5 FM.......................8.1"..............7.0"...

    1888-89..........1.9....................1.9 DJ......................16.5"..............4.0"...

    1965-66..........1.7....................1.7 ND.....................21.4".............6.8"...

    1991-92..........1.7....................2.0 MA....................12.8"..............6.2"...

    1918-19..........1.5....................1.7 JF..........................3.8"..............1.4"...

    1957-58..........1.5....................1.6 MA....................44.7"............11.8"...

    1896-97.........,1.5....................1.5 DJ......................43.6".............11.0"...

    1925-26..........1.4....................1.7 MA....................32.4".............12.0"...

    1940-41..........1.4....................2.3 AM....................39.0".............18.1"...

    7 hours ago, Analog1888 said:

    Just because you're saying it, I bet we don't even get to moderate.

    HFd8SgYWUAADAe7.jpg.55f3671e2a299261e35f327919575aca.jpg

    2 minutes ago, Snowlover76 said:

    HFd8SgYWUAADAe7.jpg.55f3671e2a299261e35f327919575aca.jpg

    I'm going moderate to strong.

    6 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

    I'm going moderate to strong.

    Hopefully we can get some actual moisture.

    4 minutes ago, Snowlover76 said:

    Hopefully we can get some actual moisture.

    We're already starting to get wetter. The worm turns, but it takes time.

    Beauty

    Tab4FileL.png

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