Long range on the models are showing wetter and cooler conditions to end April into early May.

Today will be our last above normal day though Wednesday. Today’s temperature will approach 70 degrees especially the further west you go. Tomorrow temperatures will struggle to escape the lower 50's. We should see some showers along the cold front during the morning tomorrow with between 0.10" to 0.40" of rain possible. By Monday temperatures in the higher spots will likely stay in the 40's with a freeze likely Monday night into Tuesday morning. We start to moderate with temperatures back to several degrees above normal in the low 70's by Friday.

All signs continue to point to this upcoming Nino being comparable to 82/97/15. Cooler summer than last year. Much milder winter than last year. Our best hope for this upcoming winter likely will be a Blizzard of 83/16 type storm.

We are 11 degrees above normal this month so far in Pittsburgh. Warmest April month to date so far.

Here's what a Modoki El Nino subsurface would look like at this point. Not even in the same universe as this year. Going to be an east based upper end event.

40 minutes ago, SnowMiser123 said:

All signs continue to point to this upcoming Nino being comparable to 82/97/15. Cooler summer than last year. Much milder winter than last year. Our best hope for this upcoming winter likely will be a Blizzard of 83/16 type storm.

The STJ will defintely be in play for the winter. Should be very interesting. Yes it looks mild but we are so far out. Of course not expecting a very cold winter like this past one.

For those folks down the shore - the chilly ocean water temps working their unfortunate magic for folks down in Sea Isle City NJ for Girl's weekend....highs in SIC have not moved much from around 50 degrees all day. The beauty of coastal climes in the Northeast US in spring! Can hardly see through the fog and marine shank!

3 hours ago, SnowMiser123 said:

All signs continue to point to this upcoming Nino being comparable to 82/97/15. Cooler summer than last year. Much milder winter than last year. Our best hope for this upcoming winter likely will be a Blizzard of 83/16 type storm.

Super Nino means more storms but warm..might have perfect setups with no cold air..hate strong ninos..yuck and they are always followed the following winter with strong ninas

3 hours ago, Metfan88 said:

The STJ will defintely be in play for the winter. Should be very interesting. Yes it looks mild but we are so far out. Of course not expecting a very cold winter like this past one.

Because ENSO is such a large scale circulation, you can predict it fairly far out with a high level of confidence.

Climate models show the global air flow beginning to resemble 1982/1997/2015 by June. Should have a high level of confidence by then as to what kind of El Nino event we are getting if that ends up being the case.

if we are going to use the 2015 analog for this summer, expect August and September to be very hot. 5th hottest August on record in New York City and the warmest September on record by a full degree. That was the summer when New York City had the most consecutive days of temperatures of 80 or higher. I believe it was something like over 65 days or something like that. I hope that is not what we see this summer.

1 minute ago, Andrew said:

if we are going to use the 2015 analog for this summer, expect August and September to be very hot. 5th hottest August on record in New York City and the warmest September on record by a full degree. That was the summer when New York City had the most consecutive days of temperatures of 80 or higher. I believe it was something like over 65 days or something like that. I hope that is not what we see this summer.

if you use 1982 as an analog the Summer will be cool with a three week warm period in July...They had 11 days 90 or above and that came in a three week period in July...mid June 82 had a day when the max was 55 and August had a day when the min was 50 tying the lowest August temp on record...

11 minutes ago, Andrew said:

if we are going to use the 2015 analog for this summer, expect August and September to be very hot. 5th hottest August on record in New York City and the warmest September on record by a full degree. That was the summer when New York City had the most consecutive days of temperatures of 80 or higher. I believe it was something like over 65 days or something like that. I hope that is not what we see this summer.

I don't think that's a good analog for the summer, because this year we are Nina transitioning to a Nino.

1997 or 1982 could be a better analog.

1 hour ago, Keith P.A said:

Super Nino means more storms but warm..might have perfect setups with no cold air..hate strong ninos..yuck and they are always followed the following winter with strong ninas

you need strong blocking like we got a week before the 2016 storm and during the 1983 storm...1997-98 had some good blocking but there was no cold air and 1973 had very little blocking...I still think it won't get to super statis...we could have a dud el nino winter at any strength...the last one was a dud except for a thin line of heavy snow just south of the city in Feb 24...

Pictures from my friend in Illinois yesterday again since I posted them in a dead thread.

48 and misty here

35° moderate wintry mix in skaneateles.

11 hours ago, uncle w said:

you need strong blocking like we got a week before the 2016 storm and during the 1983 storm...1997-98 had some good blocking but there was no cold air and 1973 had very little blocking...I still think it won't get to super statis...we could have a dud el nino winter at any strength...the last one was a dud except for a thin line of heavy snow just south of the city in Feb 24...

72-73 and 97-98 we did have chances but there were misses...82-83 and 15-16 we did get a period of blocking which led to the blizzards. 57-58 and 65-66 were not as warm and turned out to be decent winters.

strongest nino's...only great winters were 1896-97 and 1957-58...1925-26 and 1940-41 were good...1982-83 and 2015-16 was a one great storm winter...1965-66 and 1986-87 were acceptable...1877-78, 1888-89, 1918-19, 1930-31, 1972-73, 1991-92, 1997-98 and 2023-24 were dud and dudder...winters with a ten inch or greater storm...1896-97, 1925-26, 1940-41, 1957-58, 1982-83, 2015-16...

1877-78.....8.1"....one storm 7" 1/31-2/1...

1888-89...16.5"...cold February...

1896-97...43.6"...five storms 5" or more...

1918-19.....3.8"...no storm 2" or more...

1925-26...32.4"...10" and 12" storm in one week during early February...

1930-31...11.6"...4" just before Christmas...

1940-41...39.0"...18" on March 8th...

1957-58...44.7"...five storms 4" or more...12" on March 21st...

1965-66...21.4"...at the time the latest measurable snow on record...7" 1/30...

1972-73.....2.8"...a storm at the end of January was our best chance...1.8" after rain and sleet...

1982-83...27.2"...18" storm in February...

1986-87...23.1"...8" storm in late January...similar winter to 1965-66...

1991-92...12.8"...6" March 19th...

1997-98.....5.5"...0.5" until March 22nd...

2015-16...32.8"...27" storm in late January...

2023-24.....7.4"...11" storm just south of Manhattan in Feb...

A much chillier day underway with showers across the area. We have already picked up 0.12" here in East Nantmeal with a little more on the way with shower chances continuing till about noon. Today’s temperatures will run about 20 degrees colder than normal with highs struggling to escape the 40's. Unseasonable cold tomorrow with highs again in the 40's. A freeze watch starts tomorrow night at midnight with lows by Tuesday morning in the low to mid 20's in the colder valley locations. We start a slow warming trend that lasts through the week with temperatures by Thursday near 70 degrees.

1 hour ago, uncle w said:

strongest nino's...only great winters were 1896-97 and 1957-58...1925-26 and 1940-41 were good...1982-83 and 2015-16 was a one great storm winter...1965-66 and 1986-87 were acceptable...1877-78, 1888-89, 1918-19, 1930-31, 1972-73, 1991-92, 1997-98 and 2023-24 were dud and dudder...winters with a ten inch or greater storm...1896-97, 1925-26, 1940-41, 1957-58, 1982-83, 2015-16...

1877-78.....8.1"....one storm 7" 1/31-2/1...

1888-89...16.5"...cold February...

1896-97...43.6"...five storms 5" or more...

1918-19.....3.8"...no storm 2" or more...

1925-26...32.4"...10" and 12" storm in one week during early February...

1930-31...11.6"...4" just before Christmas...

1940-41...39.0"...18" on March 8th...

1957-58...44.7"...five storms 4" or more...12" on March 21st...

1965-66...21.4"...at the time the latest measurable snow on record...7" 1/30...

1972-73.....2.8"...a storm at the end of January was our best chance...1.8" after rain and sleet...

1982-83...27.2"...18" storm in February...

1986-87...23.1"...8" storm in late January...similar winter to 1965-66...

1991-92...12.8"...6" March 19th...

1997-98.....5.5"...0.5" until March 22nd...

2015-16...32.8"...27" storm in late January...

2023-24.....7.4"...11" storm just south of Manhattan in Feb...

Seems like 1877-78 resembled 1994-95...