since we are getting some hot weather this week here are some hot periods in the past for NYC...

Hot periods...

6/21-7/14 1966...19 of 24 days 90 or higher...

7/04-7/20 1993...14 of 17 days 90 or higher...

7/29-8/19 2002...17 of 22 days 90 or higher...

7/23-8/17 1944...19 of 26 days 90 or higher...

7/12-7/23 1952...11 of 12 days 90 or higher...

9/23-9/04 1953...12 of 12 days 90 or higher...

7/27-8/13 1896...14 of 18 days 90 or higher...

4 hours ago, uncle w said:

every time I drive I78 near Piscataway it's the hottest spot...

Growing up there, it was hot haha. The strip from southern somerset through middlesex co always seems like the hot spot. Often times its where the rain/snow line is

28 minutes ago, FrankPizz said:

Growing up there, it was hot haha. The strip from southern somerset through middlesex co always seems like the hot spot. Often times its where the rain/snow line is

down sloping?...

2 hours ago, uncle w said:

down sloping?...

Yes, I think from the Watchung Mountains sub ranges

Our extreme heat watch goes into effect starting on Wednesday. The next couple of days will be close to average for the end of June. Most spots should reach the low 90's starting on Wednesday with the peak hot days being both Thursday and Friday with highs in the upper 90's in most spots to near 100 in lower elevation valley locations. Storm chances increase a little on Independence Day and will help trim temperatures a little by the end of next weekend.

My lowest temp was -7 this year. With it most likely getting to over 100, I think this might be 2 years in a row here where I had negative temps and triple digit temps. If it wasn't last year, it was the year before. This is the first I remember have 3 years in a row with below zero temps (since I have been tracking anyway, I know it has happened). The range this year is possibly the largest that I can remember though, maybe as much as 110 degrees if we can make it to 103!

16 hours ago, Sundog said:

Bro that's nothing check Tuesday and the peak of the heat on Wednesday.

6z Euro is the latest run available and it still showing 111F for Colt's Neck on Wednesday at 2PM, 108F for the city.

Probably a little hotter a couple hours later.

Overdone.

17 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Overdone.

Euro has a major well known warm bias. Not saying that 102 isn't hot (which I think it has now), but 108+ was silly. I've said it a multitude of times, Tombo's board tracks the euro and gfs on how many runs it spits out 100s for Philly within 7 days, and last year the euro beat the gfs by forecasting 100s over 80x, and many time it spit out all-time record highs only for it to verify between 97-99. I wish the board didn't go to discord because I now can't find the actual #'s.

25 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Overdone.

Probably. 6z was cooler.

But the GFS is still showing 100s for days too.

35 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Probably. 6z was cooler.

But the GFS is still showing 100s for days too.

Cloud debris and the ridge breaking down will likely prevent more than 2 days or so of 100+

46 minutes ago, FrankPizz said:

Euro has a major well known warm bias. Not saying that 102 isn't hot (which I think it has now), but 108+ was silly. I've said it a multitude of times, Tombo's board tracks the euro and gfs on how many runs it spits out 100s for Philly within 7 days, and last year the euro beat the gfs by forecasting 100s over 80x, and many time it spit out all-time record highs only for it to verify between 97-99. I wish the board didn't go to discord because I now can't find the actual #'s.

It also had some crazy cold forecasts last winter too-It showed -7 in NYC at one point...LOL

With a chance that some locations could see a 100-degree day later this week I went back and analyzed 30 temperature stations across the area to see just how rare such a day has become. A 100-degree day is a rare occurrence across most spots across the County. With the potential being even more rare across the relatively higher ridge stations above 595 ft. In fact the last time any ridge location station saw a 100-degree reading was 15 years ago back on July 22, 2011. Of the 18 current stations across the area that report temperatures 9 of these have never recorded such a day. Our lowest elevation stations at Phoenixville and nearby Spring City both recorded a 100+ day last June. To illustrate how different the temperature elevation impact can be on June 26, 2025 while Spring City (256 ft ASL) was hitting the century mark....not too far away at Glenmoore DEOS (620 FT ASL) but 400 feet higher the high was 10 degrees cooler at "only" 90.6

20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

It also had some crazy cold forecasts last winter too-It showed -7 in NYC at one point...LOL

That's why we use statistical guidance and not raw model data.

How's Corey Maller regarding weather?

18 hours ago, Sundog said:

Bro that's nothing check Tuesday and the peak of the heat on Wednesday.

6z Euro is the latest run available and it still showing 111F for Colt's Neck on Wednesday at 2PM, 108F for the city.

Probably a little hotter a couple hours later.

You see the CAPE modeled on the NAM Wed.

Oofa

25 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

You see the CAPE modeled on the NAM Wed.

Oofa

I just checked, damn that is through the roof

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

It also had some crazy cold forecasts last winter too-It showed -7 in NYC at one point...LOL

Yeah, ever since they "updated" it, even shorter term forecast temps are off. I think many times it is worse then the GFS for temps

1 hour ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

You see the CAPE modeled on the NAM Wed.

Oofa

CAPE is useless without any trigger.

If you have even a little bit of shear though that can work wonders.

Euro is back full force and the GFS matches with mid 100s and is some cases upper 100s across the tristate area.

Pretty sure this is going to happen, it's not the Euro on its own being stupid.