I still don’t know if I buy these extreme temps esp on costal plain. What do you guys think? Might be 103 in central Park but 90 in along the southern shores

14 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

I still don’t know if I buy these extreme temps esp on costal plain. What do you guys think? Might be 103 in central Park but 90 in along the southern shores

It would have to be 110 everywhere else for Central Park to record 103.

So you better hope the park doesn't record any such temperature lol

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

It would have to be 110 everywhere else for Central Park to record 103.

So you better hope the park doesn't record any such temperature lol

True haha, I’m just so used to sea breezes and cooler temps this year on the water

@uncle w think we beat the 1966 records? Saw on TV thurs and Fridays records for the whole area were from 66. Lga was 107 one of those days back then.

Crazy getting this heat in a Nino

3 hours ago, Sundog said:

Euro is back full force and the GFS matches with mid 100s and is some cases upper 100s across the tristate area.

Pretty sure this is going to happen, it's not the Euro on its own being stupid.

FWIW the heat has underperformed out here the last 2 days.

14 minutes ago, FrankPizz said:

@uncle w think we beat the 1966 records? Saw on TV thurs and Fridays records for the whole area were from 66. Lga was 107 one of those days back then.

Is there a surface map for back then to compare to what it will look like here in a few days?

I don’t believe we hit 100 here. We need a straight west to West Northwest wins for that. Dewpoints are going to be atrocious though.

The pattern somewhat resembles 1999 and 2010 and both of those years were at developing La Niña.

4 minutes ago, Andrew said:

I don’t believe we hit 100 here. We need a straight west to West Northwest wins for that. Dewpoints are going to be atrocious though.

The pattern somewhat resembles 1999 and 2010 and both of those years were at developing La Niña.

Winter is gonna be fucked.

7 minutes ago, Snowlover76 said:

Winter is gonna be fucked.

Winters are better with a hot summer Nino. Do you ever actually look at data? You can use that link you sent me and take30 seconds and look. But you'd rather just post "winter is gonna be fucked" and look stupid, as usual.

6 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

Winters are better with a hot summer Nino. Do you ever actually look at data? You can use that link you sent me and take30 seconds and look. But you'd rather just post "winter is gonna be fucked" and look stupid, as usual.

Developing Ninos that had 90° in April in New York City usually end up being much better cold and snow wise.

Just now, Andrew said:

Developing Ninos that had 90° in April in New York City usually end up being much better cold and snow wise.

@Uncle w posted the statistics the other day.

Strong El Nino is not bad in Nebraska:

Snowfall at Lincoln in Strong El Nino:

2023-24 16"

2015-16: 20.5"

2009-10: 42"

1997-98 45"

1994-95 22"

1982-83 38"

1972-73: 30"

1965-66 9"

1957-58 38.8"

Not all that bad for a compilation, 2 bad ones, but 4 really good ones

Severe thunderstorm watch until midnight here for possible winds up to 90 MPH!

1 hour ago, FrankPizz said:

Is there a surface map for back then to compare to what it will look like here in a few days?

2 hours ago, FrankPizz said:

@uncle w think we beat the 1966 records? Saw on TV thurs and Fridays records for the whole area were from 66. Lga was 107 one of those days back then.

we might to 100 in Central Park...105 at Newark...

7/1	100 in 1901	99 in 1964	98 in 1963
7/2	100 in 1966	100 in 1901	98 in 1941
7/3	103 in 1966	100 in 1911	100 in 1898
7/4	102 in 1949	99 in 1919	98 in 1966
7/5	101 in 1999	99 in 2010	98 in 1955+
7/6	103 in 2010	101 in 1999	98 in 1986+
7/7	100 in 2010	98 in 1993	98 in 1986

1911 was a developing el nino year...1963 and 1986 too...all the other years were either la nina or neutral...1941 was a second year el nino...

1 hour ago, uncle w said:

Thank you! I wanted to see if it looked similar to the set up now.

850mb temps peaking around 24-25C. Both of these
are above the 90th percentile of observed values by the OKX
RAOB, with 1956 being the last time an 850 temp over 24C was
observed!

Today should be our last sub 90 degree high until Monday. Mid to upper 80's today rising into the low to mid 90's tomorrow and then upper 90's in higher spots to near 100 in our valley locations both Thursday and Friday. Shower chances increase later July 4th with the days trending slightly cooler with highs by Monday in the upper 80's.